Bookmaker odds for X at 4.75 imply a 21.1% chance
Calculated edge: (0.70 × 4.75) - 1 = 2.325 - 1 = 1.325 or 132.5% (overstated)
Market odds undervalue the likelihood of a draw given the simulation
Draw outcome aligns with tactical analysis of both teams' vulnerabilities and BTTS frequency
Data support: Simulated score 1-1; Both teams have BTTS in recent matches (100%); Goals scored and conceded are balanced (~1.7 each)
CONTEXT
keyMatchups:
- Home team's attack vs Away team's defensive resilience
- Midfield battles to control possession
tacticalNotes:
- Home team likely to push for dominance and create scoring opportunities
- Away team may adopt a counter-attacking, sit-back approach, looking for quick breaks
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8/10
Saudi Arabia - Pro League
· 1 month ago
ENDED
Al Najma Club
1·0
AL Shabab Riyadh
🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Lázaro Vinicius of Al Najma Club.
96`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Lázaro Vinicius of Al Najma Club.
96`🥅 Shot
Josh Brownhill takes a shot for AL Shabab Riyadh.
94`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
94`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
93`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
94`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
92`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sultan Al-Essa for Al Najma Club.
92`🚩 Offside
Bilal Boutobba is caught offside for Al Najma Club.
91`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nasser Al-Haleel for Al Najma Club.
91`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
89`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Al Najma Club.
88`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nasser Al-Haleel for Al Najma Club.
86`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
86`🚩 Offside
Haroune Camara is caught offside for AL Shabab Riyadh.
85`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sultan Al-Essa for Al Najma Club.
85`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Al Najma Club.
82`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Al Najma Club.
82`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Bilal Boutobba for Al Najma Club.
82`🎯 Shot On Target
Yacine Adli has a shot on target for AL Shabab Riyadh.
81`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sultan Al-Essa for Al Najma Club.
80`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Saad Balobaid for AL Shabab Riyadh.
79`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
79`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
78`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Hammam Al-Hammami for AL Shabab Riyadh.
78`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Hammam Al-Hammami for AL Shabab Riyadh.
78`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Al Najma Club.
78`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
78`🥅 Shot
David Tijanic takes a shot for Al Najma Club.
77`⚠️ Foul
Foul by AL Shabab Riyadh.
77`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Yacine Adli for AL Shabab Riyadh.
73`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Abdulaziz Al-Harabi for Al Najma Club.
73`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sultan Al-Essa for Al Najma Club.
72`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
72`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for AL Shabab Riyadh.
72`🥅 Shot
Lázaro Vinicius takes a shot for Al Najma Club.
71`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Abdulaziz Al-Harabi for Al Najma Club.
71`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Rakan Al-Tulayhi for Al Najma Club.
71`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
70`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
66`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
66`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Al Najma Club.
64`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sultan Al-Essa for Al Najma Club.
63`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
62`🥅 Shot
Rakan Al-Tulayhi takes a shot for Al Najma Club.
61`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
61`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Lázaro Vinicius for Al Najma Club.
60`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
60`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Saad Balobaid for AL Shabab Riyadh.
59`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
60`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sultan Al-Essa for Al Najma Club.
58`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Yacine Adli for AL Shabab Riyadh.
58`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Al Najma Club.
58`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
57`🥅 Shot
Abdulaziz Al-Harabi takes a shot for Al Najma Club.
56`🎯 Shot On Target
Felippe Cardoso has a shot on target for Al Najma Club.
56`🥅 Shot
Felippe Cardoso takes a shot for Al Najma Club.
56`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nawaf Al-Hawsawi for Al Najma Club.
55`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for AL Shabab Riyadh.
55`🥅 Shot
Abdulaziz Al-Harabi takes a shot for Al Najma Club.
55`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Al Najma Club.
55`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Al Najma Club.
54`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
54`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ali Makki for AL Shabab Riyadh.
53`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
53`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Al Najma Club.
53`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Abdulaziz Al-Harabi for Al Najma Club.
52`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Haroune Camara of AL Shabab Riyadh.
52`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Hammam Al-Hammami for AL Shabab Riyadh.
51`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for AL Shabab Riyadh.
52`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Haroune Camara for AL Shabab Riyadh.
50`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Nawaf Al-Hawsawi of Al Najma Club.
49`🚩 Offside
Wesley Hoedt is caught offside for AL Shabab Riyadh.
48`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nawaf Al-Hawsawi for Al Najma Club.
48`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Felippe Cardoso for Al Najma Club.
47`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Al Najma Club.
47`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Abdulaziz Al-Harabi for Al Najma Club.
46`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
46`▶️ Second Half Started
The second half has started.
0`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 1-0.
0`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 1-0.
0`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 1-0.
0`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ali Makki for AL Shabab Riyadh.
50`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Lázaro Vinicius for Al Najma Club.
49`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
49`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
49`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Al Najma Club.
49`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Haroune Camara for AL Shabab Riyadh.
47`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by David Tijanic for Al Najma Club.
47`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Basil Sayyali for AL Shabab Riyadh.
46`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for AL Shabab Riyadh.
45`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Felippe Cardoso for Al Najma Club.
45`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ali Makki for AL Shabab Riyadh.
45`⚽ Goal
Goal for Al Najma Club! Scored by Lázaro Vinicius.
45`🎯 Shot On Target
Lázaro Vinicius has a shot on target for Al Najma Club.
44`🏃 Penalty Kick
Penalty shot by Al Najma Club.
43`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Saad Balobaid for AL Shabab Riyadh.
42`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sultan Al-Essa for Al Najma Club.
39`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Al Najma Club.
38`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by David Tijanic for Al Najma Club.
36`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nasser Al-Haleel for Al Najma Club.
36`⚠️ Foul
Foul by David Tijanic for Al Najma Club.
36`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
36`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
35`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nasser Al-Haleel for Al Najma Club.
34`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
34`⚠️ Foul
Foul by AL Shabab Riyadh.
34`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by AL Shabab Riyadh.
34`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nawaf Al-Hawsawi for Al Najma Club.
34`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Abdulaziz Al-Harabi for Al Najma Club.
33`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by AL Shabab Riyadh.
32`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nawaf Al-Hawsawi for Al Najma Club.
32`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ali Makki for AL Shabab Riyadh.
32`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for AL Shabab Riyadh.
31`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Abdulaziz Al-Harabi of Al Najma Club.
30`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
29`🎯 Shot On Target
Hammam Al-Hammami has a shot on target for AL Shabab Riyadh.
28`🥅 Shot
Hammam Al-Hammami takes a shot for AL Shabab Riyadh.
28`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
29`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Al Najma Club.
27`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Haroune Camara for AL Shabab Riyadh.
26`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Al Najma Club.
25`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sultan Al-Essa for Al Najma Club.
25`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
25`🥅 Shot Off The Woodwork
Yacine Adli hits the woodwork for AL Shabab Riyadh.
23`🎯 Shot On Target
Khaled Al-Shammari has a shot on target for Al Najma Club.
23`🥅 Shot
Khaled Al-Shammari takes a shot for Al Najma Club.
23`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Wesley Hoedt of AL Shabab Riyadh.
23`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Wesley Hoedt for AL Shabab Riyadh.
22`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
21`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nawaf Al-Hawsawi for Al Najma Club.
20`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Rakan Al-Tulayhi of Al Najma Club.
20`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
18`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Rakan Al-Tulayhi for Al Najma Club.
17`🥅 Shot
Shot for Al Najma Club.
17`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
18`🥅 Shot
Lázaro Vinicius takes a shot for Al Najma Club.
16`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Al Najma Club.
16`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
15`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
15`🎯 Shot On Target
Haroune Camara has a shot on target for AL Shabab Riyadh.
14`🥅 Shot
Haroune Camara takes a shot for AL Shabab Riyadh.
14`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by David Tijanic for Al Najma Club.
14`🚩 Corner
Corner for Al Najma Club.
15`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Josh Brownhill for AL Shabab Riyadh.
13`🚩 Offside
Hammam Al-Hammami is caught offside for AL Shabab Riyadh.
12`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
12`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Al Najma Club.
11`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Al Najma Club.
11`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
11`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nasser Al-Haleel for Al Najma Club.
10`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Abdulaziz Al-Harabi for Al Najma Club.
10`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
10`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sultan Al-Essa for Al Najma Club.
10`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nasser Al-Haleel for Al Najma Club.
9`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
8`🥅 Shot
Wesley Hoedt takes a shot for AL Shabab Riyadh.
7`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Saad Balobaid for AL Shabab Riyadh.
5`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
8`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for AL Shabab Riyadh.
5`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Saad Balobaid for AL Shabab Riyadh.
5`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Rakan Al-Tulayhi for Al Najma Club.
5`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
5`🚩 Corner
Corner for AL Shabab Riyadh.
5`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
4`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
4`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Hammam Al-Hammami for AL Shabab Riyadh.
3`🚩 Offside
Felippe Cardoso is caught offside for Al Najma Club.
2`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by David Tijanic for Al Najma Club.
1`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for AL Shabab Riyadh.
1`🟢 Match Started
Al Najma Club vs AL Shabab Riyadh has started.
0`
