England · Premier League
Arsenal
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Chelsea
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AltBetsAI
-9.24u
Arsenal
Analysis
Arsenal's 60% home win rate (6 of 10) crushes Chelsea's 30% away win rate (3 of 10).
Arsenal average 1.7 goals at home and concede just 0.7; Chelsea average 1.9 away but leak 2.4 per game.
Simulator projects 76.4% Arsenal win probability versus bookmaker odds implying 57.8%, a 18.6 percentage point edge.
Arsenal unbeaten vs Chelsea in last 4 H2H meetings (3 wins, 1 draw), including a 2-1 home victory most recently.
Arsenal keep clean sheets at home 70% of the time; Chelsea have zero clean sheets away.
Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : Arsenal or draw and +1.5 goals
RISK FACTORS
- Arsenal without Timber and Saliba reduces defensive depth, potentially opening doors for Chelsea's attack.
- Chelsea showed attacking teeth with a 3-2 away win vs Fulham, proving occasional scoring capability on the road.
- Only 4 H2H meetings limit sample size; squad composition has shifted since the last encounter.
Read more
Arsenal average 1.7 goals at home and concede just 0.7; Chelsea average 1.9 away but leak 2.4 per game.
Simulator projects 76.4% Arsenal win probability versus bookmaker odds implying 57.8%, a 18.6 percentage point edge.
Arsenal unbeaten vs Chelsea in last 4 H2H meetings (3 wins, 1 draw), including a 2-1 home victory most recently.
Arsenal keep clean sheets at home 70% of the time; Chelsea have zero clean sheets away.
Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : Arsenal or draw and +1.5 goals
RISK FACTORS
- Arsenal without Timber and Saliba reduces defensive depth, potentially opening doors for Chelsea's attack.
- Chelsea showed attacking teeth with a 3-2 away win vs Fulham, proving occasional scoring capability on the road.
- Only 4 H2H meetings limit sample size; squad composition has shifted since the last encounter.
Where to bet
1.73
2.7
PENDING
+1.97u
1.77x tip
by ItzJade
+5.56u
1.82x tip
by ItzJade
+5.56u
4.9x tip
by ItzJade
+5.56u
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Standings
Premier League
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City WWW | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Hull City DWW | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Arsenal WW | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Chelsea WW | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Brentford DDW | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Liverpool WDD | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Head to head
- 2026-03-01 Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea Premier League
- 2026-02-03 Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea League Cup
- 2026-01-14 Chelsea 2–3 Arsenal League Cup
- 2025-11-30 Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal Premier League
- 2025-03-16 Arsenal 1–0 Chelsea Premier League
- 2024-11-10 Chelsea 1–1 Arsenal Premier League
- 2024-04-23 Arsenal 5–0 Chelsea Premier League
- 2023-10-21 Chelsea 2–2 Arsenal Premier League
- 2023-05-02 Arsenal 3–1 Chelsea Premier League
- 2022-11-06 Chelsea 0–1 Arsenal Premier League
Team news
Arsenal
- W. Saliba — Back Injury
- Bruno Guimaraes — Knock
- C. Mosquera — Injury
- J. Timber — Ankle Injury
- W. Saliba — Back Injury
- Bruno Guimaraes — Knock
- C. Mosquera — Injury
- J. Timber — Ankle Injury
Chelsea
- J. Henderson — Wrist Injury
- M. Palestra — Injury
- M. Caicedo — Injury
- J. Henderson — Wrist Injury
- M. Palestra — Injury
- M. Caicedo — Injury
Snapshots
6 Sep 2026, 00:07 UTC · changes vs opening odds
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AltBetsAI
-9.24u
Arsenal
Analysis
Arsenal's 60% home win rate (6 of 10) crushes Chelsea's 30% away win rate (3 of 10).
Arsenal average 1.7 goals at home and concede just 0.7; Chelsea average 1.9 away but leak 2.4 per game.
Simulator projects 76.4% Arsenal win probability versus bookmaker odds implying 57.8%, a 18.6 percentage point edge.
Arsenal unbeaten vs Chelsea in last 4 H2H meetings (3 wins, 1 draw), including a 2-1 home victory most recently.
Arsenal keep clean sheets at home 70% of the time; Chelsea have zero clean sheets away.
Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : Arsenal or draw and +1.5 goals
RISK FACTORS
- Arsenal without Timber and Saliba reduces defensive depth, potentially opening doors for Chelsea's attack.
- Chelsea showed attacking teeth with a 3-2 away win vs Fulham, proving occasional scoring capability on the road.
- Only 4 H2H meetings limit sample size; squad composition has shifted since the last encounter.
Read more
Arsenal average 1.7 goals at home and concede just 0.7; Chelsea average 1.9 away but leak 2.4 per game.
Simulator projects 76.4% Arsenal win probability versus bookmaker odds implying 57.8%, a 18.6 percentage point edge.
Arsenal unbeaten vs Chelsea in last 4 H2H meetings (3 wins, 1 draw), including a 2-1 home victory most recently.
Arsenal keep clean sheets at home 70% of the time; Chelsea have zero clean sheets away.
Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : Arsenal or draw and +1.5 goals
RISK FACTORS
- Arsenal without Timber and Saliba reduces defensive depth, potentially opening doors for Chelsea's attack.
- Chelsea showed attacking teeth with a 3-2 away win vs Fulham, proving occasional scoring capability on the road.
- Only 4 H2H meetings limit sample size; squad composition has shifted since the last encounter.
Where to bet
1.73
2.7
PENDING
+1.97u
1.77x tip
by ItzJade
+5.56u
1.82x tip
by ItzJade
+5.56u
4.9x tip
by ItzJade
+5.56u
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