Avaí's home form: 1.4 goals scored, 0.9 conceded, 40% win rate, 60% clean sheet rate across 10 games.
Cuiabá's away form is weak: 20% win rate, 0.9 goals scored, 1.4 conceded across 10 away games—5 losses in 10.
Simulator xG: Avaí 1.708 vs Cuiabá 0.678—a 2.5x attacking advantage for the home side.
Top scorelines favor Avaí: 1-0 (14.6%), 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.7%), 2-1 (9.1%)—dominant home win probability.
Avaí sit 18th in Serie B with 10 points, creating strong home motivation to collect points.
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- Avaí SC host Cuiabá MT in a Serie B clash where the simulator strongly favors the home side (xG 1.71 vs 0.68, 61.1% home win probability).
- Avaí's home record shows 1.4 avg goals scored and just 0.9 conceded with 60% clean sheets, while Cuiabá away is poor — 20% win rate, 0.9 avg goals scored, and 1.4 conceded in 10 away games.
- Per match context, Avaí sit 18th in Serie B with only 10 points, adding motivation pressure, but Cuiabá's away form is even weaker.
- The market's implied probability for Avaí to win (39.2% at 2.55) is dramatically below our simulation's 61.1%, representing the clearest edge in this match.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10
Brazil - Brasileirão - Serie B
· 2 weeks ago
ENDED
Avaí SC
1·0
Cuiabá MT
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Cuiabá MT.
98`🥅 Shot
Figueiredo Jean Lucas takes a shot for Avaí SC.
97`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
97`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
97`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
96`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
96`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
95`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
95`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
94`🥅 Shot
Eric Melo takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
93`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
93`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
93`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Cuiabá MT.
93`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Avaí SC.
93`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Teixeira Douglas for Avaí SC.
92`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
91`🎯 Shot On Target
Shot on target for Cuiabá MT.
90`🥅 Shot
Shot for Cuiabá MT.
90`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Figueiredo Jean Lucas for Avaí SC.
90`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
90`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
89`🥅 Shot
Eric Melo takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
89`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
88`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
88`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
86`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
86`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
84`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
84`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Teixeira Douglas for Avaí SC.
84`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
83`🎯 Shot On Target
João Basso has a shot on target for Cuiabá MT.
82`🥅 Shot
João Basso takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
82`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
82`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
82`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
82`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
81`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
80`🥅 Shot
Nascimento Weverson takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
80`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
79`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
77`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Figueiredo Jean Lucas for Avaí SC.
76`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
76`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
76`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
75`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Teixeira Douglas for Avaí SC.
75`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
74`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Wesley Gasolina for Avaí SC.
73`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Wesley Gasolina for Avaí SC.
72`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Walace dos Santos França for Avaí SC.
70`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Avaí SC.
69`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ze Ricardo for Avaí SC.
69`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
68`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
68`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
68`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Reis Ferreira Railan for Cuiabá MT.
67`🥅 Shot
Luiz Otávio Alves Marcolino takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
67`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
67`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
66`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
65`🎯 Shot On Target
Shot on target for Cuiabá MT.
65`🥅 Shot
Shot for Cuiabá MT.
65`🥅 Shot
Oliveira Calebe takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
65`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
64`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
63`⚠️ Foul
Foul by João Pedro Vilardi Pepê for Cuiabá MT.
62`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Avaí SC.
62`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
62`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
61`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
61`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Reis Ferreira Railan for Cuiabá MT.
60`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Araujo Silva Luiz Henrique for Avaí SC.
60`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Reis Ferreira Railan for Cuiabá MT.
60`🚩 Corner
Corner for Avaí SC.
59`🥅 Shot
Thayllon takes a shot for Avaí SC.
58`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Marlon Lopes of Cuiabá MT.
57`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Marlon Lopes for Cuiabá MT.
57`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
57`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Araujo Silva Luiz Henrique for Avaí SC.
56`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
55`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
55`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Aires Santos Allyson for Avaí SC.
55`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Avaí SC.
54`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Avaí SC.
54`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
52`🎯 Shot On Target
Oliveira Calebe has a shot on target for Cuiabá MT.
48`🥅 Shot
Oliveira Calebe takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
48`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
48`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 1-0.
0`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
47`🎯 Shot On Target
Shot on target for Avaí SC.
46`🥅 Shot
Shot for Avaí SC.
46`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
46`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
45`🥅 Shot
João Pedro Vilardi Pepê takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
45`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
44`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Wesley Gasolina for Avaí SC.
44`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
42`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
42`🥅 Shot
Shot for Cuiabá MT.
41`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
41`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by João Pedro Vilardi Pepê for Cuiabá MT.
38`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ze Ricardo for Avaí SC.
38`🥅 Shot
Thayllon takes a shot for Avaí SC.
37`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
37`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
36`🚩 Offside
Marlon Lopes is caught offside for Cuiabá MT.
34`🎯 Shot On Target
Shot on target for Cuiabá MT.
34`🥅 Shot
Shot for Cuiabá MT.
34`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
34`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Figueiredo Jean Lucas for Avaí SC.
33`🎯 Shot On Target
Figueiredo Jean Lucas has a shot on target for Avaí SC.
31`🥅 Shot
Figueiredo Jean Lucas takes a shot for Avaí SC.
31`⚽ Goal
Goal for Avaí SC!
31`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Reis Ferreira Railan for Cuiabá MT.
30`🥅 Shot
Figueiredo Jean Lucas takes a shot for Avaí SC.
27`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Figueiredo Jean Lucas for Avaí SC.
26`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Cuiabá MT.
25`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
25`🥅 Shot
Wesley Gasolina takes a shot for Avaí SC.
24`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
23`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
23`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
23`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Oliveira Calebe for Cuiabá MT.
22`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
22`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
21`🎯 Shot On Target
Shot on target for Cuiabá MT.
20`🥅 Shot
Shot for Cuiabá MT.
20`🥅 Shot
Shot for Cuiabá MT.
20`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Cuiabá MT.
20`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Cuiabá MT.
19`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
18`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
17`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
16`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
15`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Oliveira Calebe for Cuiabá MT.
14`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Figueiredo Jean Lucas for Avaí SC.
14`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Wesley Gasolina for Avaí SC.
14`🚩 Corner
Corner for Cuiabá MT.
14`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Avaí SC.
13`🥅 Shot
Reis Ferreira Railan takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
13`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Araujo Silva Luiz Henrique for Avaí SC.
12`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
11`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Aires Santos Allyson for Avaí SC.
11`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
10`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Cuiabá MT.
9`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
9`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
8`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
6`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Cuiabá MT.
6`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Avaí SC.
5`⚠️ Foul
Foul by João Pedro Vilardi Pepê for Cuiabá MT.
3`🎯 Shot On Target
João Pedro Vilardi Pepê has a shot on target for Cuiabá MT.
2`🥅 Shot
João Pedro Vilardi Pepê takes a shot for Cuiabá MT.
2`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Arcanjo Miguel de Souza David for Cuiabá MT.
2`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Araujo Silva Luiz Henrique for Avaí SC.
2`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Cuiabá MT.
2`🥅 Shot
Shot for Avaí SC.
1`🟢 Match Started
Avaí SC vs Cuiabá MT has started.
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