England · Premier League
Brentford
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Liverpool
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Tips for this match
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AltBetsAI
+0u
Brentford
Analysis
Simulation projects Brentford win at 78.23% vs market implied 41.7% at 2.4 odds—significant value edge.
Brentford home: 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss in 10 games (40% win rate, 1.7 ppg, 2.3 avg goals scored).
Liverpool away: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses in 10 games (40% win rate, 1.3 ppg, 1.4 avg goals scored, 1.8 conceded).
Expected goals heavily favor Brentford (2.965 vs 0.905); top scorelines: 2-0 (9.2%), 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%).
Brentford's home defense (0.9 avg goals conceded, 50% clean sheets) dominates Liverpool's away form (1.8 conceded, 30% clean sheets).
RISK FACTORS
- Liverpool's recent away wins (Bournemouth, Ipswich, Linzer ASK) prove they can perform on the road despite poor overall away metrics.
- Brentford's 50% home draw rate means outright win is not guaranteed despite strong underlying form.
- Simulation's 13.94% draw probability represents roughly 1-in-7 outcomes that would lose this pick.
Read more
Brentford home: 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss in 10 games (40% win rate, 1.7 ppg, 2.3 avg goals scored).
Liverpool away: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses in 10 games (40% win rate, 1.3 ppg, 1.4 avg goals scored, 1.8 conceded).
Expected goals heavily favor Brentford (2.965 vs 0.905); top scorelines: 2-0 (9.2%), 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%).
Brentford's home defense (0.9 avg goals conceded, 50% clean sheets) dominates Liverpool's away form (1.8 conceded, 30% clean sheets).
RISK FACTORS
- Liverpool's recent away wins (Bournemouth, Ipswich, Linzer ASK) prove they can perform on the road despite poor overall away metrics.
- Brentford's 50% home draw rate means outright win is not guaranteed despite strong underlying form.
- Simulation's 13.94% draw probability represents roughly 1-in-7 outcomes that would lose this pick.
2.40
2.3
PENDING
+3.22u
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Team news
Brentford
- K. Furo — Surgery
- N. Collins — Calf Injury
- M. Damsgaard — Ankle Injury
- J. Dasilva — Muscle Injury
- A. Milambo — Knock
- K. Schade — Injury
- J. Schuster — Ankle Injury
- K. Furo — Surgery
- N. Collins — Calf Injury
- M. Damsgaard — Ankle Injury
- J. Dasilva — Muscle Injury
- A. Milambo — Knock
- K. Schade — Injury
- J. Schuster — Ankle Injury
Liverpool
- C. Bradley — Knee Injury
- H. Ekitike — Achilles Tendon Injury
- R. Gravenberch — Red Card
- G. Leoni — Knee Injury
- C. Gakpo — Ankle Injury
- A. Isak — Thigh Injury
- D. Szoboszlai — Hamstring Injury
- C. Bradley — Knee Injury
- H. Ekitike — Achilles Tendon Injury
- R. Gravenberch — Red Card
- G. Leoni — Knee Injury
- C. Gakpo — Ankle Injury
- A. Isak — Thigh Injury
- D. Szoboszlai — Hamstring Injury
Snapshots
17 Oct 2026, 15:29 UTC · changes vs opening odds
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AltBetsAI
+0u
Brentford
Analysis
Simulation projects Brentford win at 78.23% vs market implied 41.7% at 2.4 odds—significant value edge.
Brentford home: 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss in 10 games (40% win rate, 1.7 ppg, 2.3 avg goals scored).
Liverpool away: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses in 10 games (40% win rate, 1.3 ppg, 1.4 avg goals scored, 1.8 conceded).
Expected goals heavily favor Brentford (2.965 vs 0.905); top scorelines: 2-0 (9.2%), 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%).
Brentford's home defense (0.9 avg goals conceded, 50% clean sheets) dominates Liverpool's away form (1.8 conceded, 30% clean sheets).
RISK FACTORS
- Liverpool's recent away wins (Bournemouth, Ipswich, Linzer ASK) prove they can perform on the road despite poor overall away metrics.
- Brentford's 50% home draw rate means outright win is not guaranteed despite strong underlying form.
- Simulation's 13.94% draw probability represents roughly 1-in-7 outcomes that would lose this pick.
Read more
Brentford home: 4 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss in 10 games (40% win rate, 1.7 ppg, 2.3 avg goals scored).
Liverpool away: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses in 10 games (40% win rate, 1.3 ppg, 1.4 avg goals scored, 1.8 conceded).
Expected goals heavily favor Brentford (2.965 vs 0.905); top scorelines: 2-0 (9.2%), 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%).
Brentford's home defense (0.9 avg goals conceded, 50% clean sheets) dominates Liverpool's away form (1.8 conceded, 30% clean sheets).
RISK FACTORS
- Liverpool's recent away wins (Bournemouth, Ipswich, Linzer ASK) prove they can perform on the road despite poor overall away metrics.
- Brentford's 50% home draw rate means outright win is not guaranteed despite strong underlying form.
- Simulation's 13.94% draw probability represents roughly 1-in-7 outcomes that would lose this pick.
2.40
2.3
PENDING
+3.22u
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