Brazil · Brasileirão - Serie B
CRB AL
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00:00'
Náutico PE
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Over 2.5
Analysis
Simulation projects Over 2.5 at 73.5% vs market's 51.8% — a 21.7pp edge, largest in the match.
CRB AL's home Over 2.5 rate is 60% across last 10 games, averaging 1.7 goals for and 1.3 against.
Náutico PE's away Over 2.5 rate is 50% across last 10 games, averaging 1.8 goals for and 1.8 against — both teams drive high-scoring away fixtures.
Náutico have kept only 1 clean sheet in 10 away games, making a CRB shutout highly unlikely.
Top 4 of 5 most likely scorelines (2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2) all produce Over 2.5.
Forebet predicts a 2-2 draw, corroborating a high-scoring outcome.
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- CRB AL host Náutico PE in a Série B clash where both teams sit in the lower-mid table (CRB 15th, Náutico 13th per match context).
- Our simulation projects CRB xG of 2.37 vs Náutico xG of 1.46, yielding a 57.1% home win probability.
- The standout signal is goals: CRB's home Over 2.5 rate is 60%, Náutico's away BTTS rate is 60% with only 1 clean sheet in 10 away games, and the simulator puts Over 2.5 at 73.5% — massively above the market's implied 51.8%.
- BTTS Yes at 70.3% simulated probability also offers meaningful edge over the 57.8% implied by 1.73 odds.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10
CRB AL's home Over 2.5 rate is 60% across last 10 games, averaging 1.7 goals for and 1.3 against.
Náutico PE's away Over 2.5 rate is 50% across last 10 games, averaging 1.8 goals for and 1.8 against — both teams drive high-scoring away fixtures.
Náutico have kept only 1 clean sheet in 10 away games, making a CRB shutout highly unlikely.
Top 4 of 5 most likely scorelines (2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2) all produce Over 2.5.
Forebet predicts a 2-2 draw, corroborating a high-scoring outcome.
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- CRB AL host Náutico PE in a Série B clash where both teams sit in the lower-mid table (CRB 15th, Náutico 13th per match context).
- Our simulation projects CRB xG of 2.37 vs Náutico xG of 1.46, yielding a 57.1% home win probability.
- The standout signal is goals: CRB's home Over 2.5 rate is 60%, Náutico's away BTTS rate is 60% with only 1 clean sheet in 10 away games, and the simulator puts Over 2.5 at 73.5% — massively above the market's implied 51.8%.
- BTTS Yes at 70.3% simulated probability also offers meaningful edge over the 57.8% implied by 1.73 odds.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10
1.93
2.2
PENDING
+2.05u
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Pre-match analysis
Confidence 85%
good data
Home
CRB AL
Form: average
Attack
6/10
Defence
6/10
Strengths
- No standout strengths in last 10 games — average across the board
Weaknesses
- No glaring weaknesses in last 10 games
Key patterns
- Mixed patterns across recent 10 games
Away
Náutico PE
Form: average
Attack
6/10
Defence
5/10
Strengths
- No standout strengths in last 10 games — average across the board
Weaknesses
- Leaky defense — conceding 1.80 per game
- Rare clean sheets — only 10% of recent games
Key patterns
- Games rarely end goalless — Over 1.5 in 80%
Match context
Expected intensity: high
Tactical notes
- CRB AL host Náutico PE in a Série B clash where both teams sit in the lower-mid table (CRB 15th, Náutico 13th per match context).
- Our simulation projects CRB xG of 2.37 vs Náutico xG of 1.46, yielding a 57.1% home win probability.
- The standout signal is goals: CRB's home Over 2.5 rate is 60%, Náutico's away BTTS rate is 60% with only 1 clean sheet in 10 away games, and the simulator puts Over 2.5 at 73.5% — massively above the market's implied 51.8%.
- BTTS Yes at 70.3% simulated probability also offers meaningful edge over the 57.8% implied by 1.73 odds.
