Coritiba home form solid: 3W-4D-3L, 1.1 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game across last 10 — defensively disciplined.
Bahia away form weak: 4W-2D-4L, 1.5 goals conceded per away game — highest vulnerability stat in dataset.
Simulator xG favours Coritiba 1.41 vs Bahia 0.98 — home side generates 44% more expected goals, backing the 45.7% win probability.
Both teams level on mid-table points; Coritiba fully motivated to press for 3 points at home.
Top scorelines favour Coritiba: 1-1 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.9%) — three of four most likely outcomes are home wins or draws.
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- Coritiba host Bahia in Série A Round 17 with both teams level on points per match context.
- The Dixon-Coles simulator projects Coritiba as clear home favourites (45.7% win probability) despite identical 2.70 odds for both sides, implying a meaningful pricing error on the home win.
- Coritiba's home xG profile is low-scoring (avg 1.1 scored, 1.0 conceded, only 20% Over 2.5 at home), and the simulator's total expected goals of 2.39 supports an Under 2.5 lean.
- No H2H data exists between these sides.
- Calibration buckets returned insufficient sample across all markets.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10
Brazil - Brasileirão - Série A
· 1 month ago
ENDED
Coritiba PR
3·2
Bahia BA
⏱️ Normal Time Ended
Normal time ended. Score: 3-2.
0`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Roman Gomez for Bahia BA.
96`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
95`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
94`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Coritiba PR.
94`🥅 Shot
Roman Gomez takes a shot for Bahia BA.
93`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Lucas Taverna for Coritiba PR.
93`🚩 Corner
Corner for Coritiba PR.
93`📡 Live Update
90+2 • Coritiba PR
92`🚩 Corner
Corner for Coritiba PR.
93`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Bahia BA.
92`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Roman Gomez for Bahia BA.
91`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ademir da Silva for Bahia BA.
91`⚽ Goal
Goal for Bahia BA!
91`🎯 Shot On Target
Everaldo has a shot on target for Bahia BA.
90`🥅 Shot
Everaldo takes a shot for Bahia BA.
90`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Roman Gomez of Bahia BA.
90`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Tiago Coser for Coritiba PR.
88`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
88`🚩 Corner
Corner for Coritiba PR.
87`🎯 Shot On Target
Pedro Rocha has a shot on target for Coritiba PR.
86`🥅 Shot
Pedro Rocha takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
86`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Macedo David Duarte for Bahia BA.
84`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Lucas Taverna for Coritiba PR.
84`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
84`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
84`🥅 Shot
Cristian Olivera takes a shot for Bahia BA.
83`🎯 Shot On Target
Pedro Rocha has a shot on target for Coritiba PR.
81`🥅 Shot
Pedro Rocha takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
81`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Éverton Ribeiro for Bahia BA.
81`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Breno Lopes for Coritiba PR.
81`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Tiago Coser for Coritiba PR.
81`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Coritiba PR.
81`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
81`🥅 Shot
Ademir da Silva takes a shot for Bahia BA.
80`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Willian Oliveira for Coritiba PR.
79`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Josue for Coritiba PR.
78`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Ademir da Silva of Bahia BA.
76`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ademir da Silva for Bahia BA.
75`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Coritiba PR.
75`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Coritiba PR.
75`🥅 Shot
Michel Araújo takes a shot for Bahia BA.
74`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Michel Araújo for Bahia BA.
74`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
74`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
73`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
73`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nicolás Acevedo for Bahia BA.
70`⚽ Goal
Goal for Coritiba PR!
68`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
68`🎯 Shot On Target
Breno Lopes has a shot on target for Coritiba PR.
67`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
68`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
66`⚽ Goal
Goal for Coritiba PR!
65`🎯 Shot On Target
Joaquín Lavega has a shot on target for Coritiba PR.
64`🥅 Shot
Joaquín Lavega takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
64`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
63`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jean Lucas for Bahia BA.
63`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jean Lucas for Bahia BA.
63`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Josue for Coritiba PR.
63`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nicolás Acevedo for Bahia BA.
62`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Roman Gomez for Bahia BA.
62`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
62`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
61`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Bahia BA.
60`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nicolás Acevedo for Bahia BA.
60`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
60`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sebastián Gómez for Coritiba PR.
59`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
58`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Amaral Iago for Bahia BA.
58`⚠️ Foul
Foul by João Pedro Chermont for Coritiba PR.
58`⚽ Goal
Goal for Coritiba PR!
56`🎯 Shot On Target
Bruno Melo has a shot on target for Coritiba PR.
55`⚽ Goal
Goal for Coritiba PR!
56`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Da Costa Erick Pulga for Bahia BA.
54`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nicolás Acevedo for Bahia BA.
53`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
52`🥅 Shot
Willian José takes a shot for Bahia BA.
52`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
52`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Tiago Coser for Coritiba PR.
51`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Amaral Iago for Bahia BA.
50`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Coritiba PR.
49`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
49`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
48`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
47`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jean Lucas for Bahia BA.
46`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Roman Gomez for Bahia BA.
45`▶️ Second Half Started
The second half has started.
0`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 0-1.
0`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
52`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Éverton Ribeiro for Bahia BA.
51`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Maranhão Jacy for Coritiba PR.
47`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Amaral Iago for Bahia BA.
46`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by João Pedro Chermont for Coritiba PR.
46`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Bahia BA.
46`🥅 Shot
Maranhão Jacy takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
44`🥅 Shot
Josue takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
43`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
42`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Mateo Sanabria for Bahia BA.
42`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Coritiba PR.
42`🥅 Shot
Éverton Ribeiro takes a shot for Bahia BA.
41`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Maranhão Jacy for Coritiba PR.
41`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Roman Gomez for Bahia BA.
39`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Thiago Santos for Coritiba PR.
38`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Bahia BA.
37`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jean Lucas for Bahia BA.
36`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Bahia BA.
36`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Mateo Sanabria for Bahia BA.
35`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Bruno Melo for Coritiba PR.
34`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
34`🎯 Shot On Target
Breno Lopes has a shot on target for Coritiba PR.
32`🥅 Shot
Breno Lopes takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
32`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
32`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Willian José for Bahia BA.
30`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Bahia BA.
30`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nicolás Acevedo for Bahia BA.
29`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
28`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Bahia BA.
28`⚽ Goal
Goal for Bahia BA!
26`⚽ Goal
Goal for Bahia BA!
26`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
25`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sebastián Gómez for Coritiba PR.
24`🚩 Corner
Corner for Coritiba PR.
24`🥅 Shot
Pedro Rocha takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
23`🥅 Shot
Amaral Iago takes a shot for Bahia BA.
21`🥅 Shot Off The Woodwork
Amaral Iago hits the woodwork for Bahia BA.
21`🥅 Shot
Mateo Sanabria takes a shot for Bahia BA.
21`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jean Lucas for Bahia BA.
21`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
20`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
20`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
19`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
19`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Coritiba PR.
18`🥅 Shot
Mateo Sanabria takes a shot for Bahia BA.
17`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
16`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Bahia BA.
16`🥅 Shot
Éverton Ribeiro takes a shot for Bahia BA.
15`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
15`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Thiago Santos for Coritiba PR.
13`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Josue for Coritiba PR.
12`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Bahia BA.
12`🥅 Shot
Sebastián Gómez takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
11`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
11`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
11`🎯 Shot On Target
Pedro Rocha has a shot on target for Coritiba PR.
10`🥅 Shot
Pedro Rocha takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
10`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jean Lucas for Bahia BA.
9`🥅 Shot
Josue takes a shot for Coritiba PR.
9`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
8`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Roman Gomez for Bahia BA.
7`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
7`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
7`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
7`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
5`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Coritiba PR.
5`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
5`🚩 Corner
Corner for Bahia BA.
5`🥅 Shot
Da Costa Erick Pulga takes a shot for Bahia BA.
4`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
2`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Thiago Santos for Coritiba PR.
2`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Bahia BA.
1`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Mateo Sanabria for Bahia BA.
1`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Coritiba PR.
1`🟢 Match Started
Coritiba PR vs Bahia BA has started.
0`
