Fulham's home record: 6W-0D-4L in last 10, averaging 1.8 PPG with 1.4 goals for and 1.0 against per game.
Newcastle's away form: 4W-1D-5L in last 10, averaging 1.3 PPG with 1.9 goals conceded per game — worst defensive away record in sample.
Newcastle have won just 1 of their last 6 away matches and enter on a 4-game away winless streak.
H2H shows Newcastle won both prior meetings (3.0 avg goals/game), but 2-game sample is too small to override current form and simulator signal.
Final-day stakes are neutral for both (49 pts each, no European or relegation), but Fulham's Craven Cottage crowd provides meaningful home advantage (1.1 multiplier in simulation).
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- This is a final-day Premier League fixture with both Fulham (13th, 49 pts) and Newcastle (also 49 pts) having nothing meaningful to play for beyond pride.
- The simulator gives Fulham a 54.0% home win probability anchored on their 1.4 avg home goals scored vs Newcastle's leaky away defense (1.9 avg conceded away).
- Newcastle have won just 1 of their last 6 away games per match context, and the Dixon-Coles model produces xG of 1.99 vs 1.24 in Fulham's favor.
- The market's implied probability for a Fulham home win (35.7% at 2.80) is dramatically below the model's 54.0%, representing the clearest edge in this match.
- Over/Under and BTTS markets offer no positive edge once implied probabilities are compared to simulator output.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10
England - Premier League
· 1 month ago
ENDED
Fulham
2·0
Newcastle
🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Jorge Cuenca of Fulham.
98`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jorge Cuenca for Fulham.
97`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
97`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
96`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Harry Wilson for Fulham.
96`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
95`🥅 Shot
Raul Jimenez takes a shot for Fulham.
95`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Raul Jimenez for Fulham.
95`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fulham.
95`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
93`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
93`🥅 Shot
Alex Iwobi takes a shot for Fulham.
93`🥅 Shot
Alex Iwobi takes a shot for Fulham.
93`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Harvey Barnes for Newcastle.
93`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Calvin Bassey for Fulham.
92`🚩 Offside
Joshua Steven King is caught offside for Fulham.
92`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
91`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fulham.
90`🥅 Shot
Harvey Barnes takes a shot for Newcastle.
89`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Antonee Robinson of Fulham.
89`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Antonee Robinson for Fulham.
88`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fulham.
88`🚩 Corner
Corner for Newcastle.
88`🚩 Corner
Corner for Newcastle.
88`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sander Berge for Fulham.
84`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Calvin Bassey for Fulham.
84`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
84`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
83`🥅 Shot
Harry Wilson takes a shot for Fulham.
82`🎯 Shot On Target
Joshua Steven King has a shot on target for Fulham.
82`🥅 Shot
Joshua Steven King takes a shot for Fulham.
82`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Antonee Robinson for Fulham.
82`⚽ Goal
Goal for Fulham! Scored by Tom Cairney.
80`🚩 Corner
Corner for Fulham.
80`🎯 Shot On Target
Tom Cairney has a shot on target for Fulham.
79`🚩 Corner
Corner for Fulham.
80`🚩 Corner
Corner for Fulham.
79`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fulham.
77`🚩 Corner
Corner for Newcastle.
77`🥅 Shot
Harvey Barnes takes a shot for Newcastle.
76`🥅 Shot
Alex Iwobi takes a shot for Fulham.
74`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Raul Jimenez for Fulham.
74`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Joshua Steven King for Fulham.
74`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
73`🥅 Shot
Tom Cairney takes a shot for Fulham.
73`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Joshua Steven King for Fulham.
73`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fulham.
72`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Yoane Wissa of Newcastle.
70`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Rodrigo Muniz for Fulham.
69`🎯 Shot On Target
Alex Iwobi has a shot on target for Fulham.
69`🥅 Shot
Alex Iwobi takes a shot for Fulham.
69`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
68`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Dan Burn for Newcastle.
67`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fulham.
67`🥅 Shot
Joe Willock takes a shot for Newcastle.
67`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
64`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Bruno Guimarães of Newcastle.
64`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Newcastle.
64`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Bruno Guimarães for Newcastle.
63`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fulham.
63`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
61`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Tom Cairney for Fulham.
61`🥅 Shot
Tom Cairney takes a shot for Fulham.
61`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
60`🚩 Corner
Corner for Newcastle.
58`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
56`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Calvin Bassey for Fulham.
55`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
54`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
53`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Rodrigo Muniz for Fulham.
53`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
52`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
50`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Antonee Robinson for Fulham.
50`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
50`🚩 Corner
Corner for Newcastle.
50`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jacob Ramsey for Newcastle.
49`🚩 Corner
Corner for Newcastle.
50`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Emile Smith-Rowe for Fulham.
48`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Alex Iwobi for Fulham.
47`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
47`🚩 Corner
Corner for Fulham.
47`🚩 Corner
Corner for Fulham.
47`▶️ Second Half Started
The second half has started.
0`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 1-0.
0`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
49`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
49`🥅 Shot
Alex Iwobi takes a shot for Fulham.
48`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
48`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jacob Ramsey for Newcastle.
48`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
48`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
47`🚩 Corner
Corner for Fulham.
45`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
44`🚩 Corner
Corner for Fulham.
45`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jacob Murphy for Newcastle.
43`⚠️ Foul
Foul by William Osula for Newcastle.
43`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
42`🥅 Shot
Timothy Castagne takes a shot for Fulham.
41`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Emile Smith-Rowe for Fulham.
40`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Bruno Guimarães for Newcastle.
35`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
35`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by William Osula for Newcastle.
34`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
33`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Calvin Bassey for Fulham.
32`🎯 Shot On Target
Joe Willock has a shot on target for Newcastle.
32`🥅 Shot
Joe Willock takes a shot for Newcastle.
32`🎯 Shot On Target
Bruno Guimarães has a shot on target for Newcastle.
31`🥅 Shot
Bruno Guimarães takes a shot for Newcastle.
31`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
30`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
30`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fulham.
30`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sven Botman for Newcastle.
29`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
28`🥅 Shot
Rodrigo Muniz takes a shot for Fulham.
27`🎯 Shot On Target
Rodrigo Muniz has a shot on target for Fulham.
27`🥅 Shot
Rodrigo Muniz takes a shot for Fulham.
27`🚩 Corner
Corner for Newcastle.
27`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jacob Ramsey for Newcastle.
25`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Emile Smith-Rowe for Fulham.
25`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
25`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
25`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sander Berge for Fulham.
24`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Timothy Castagne for Fulham.
23`🎯 Shot On Target
Emile Smith-Rowe has a shot on target for Fulham.
23`🥅 Shot
Emile Smith-Rowe takes a shot for Fulham.
23`🚩 Offside
Sven Botman is caught offside for Newcastle.
22`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Rodrigo Muniz for Fulham.
22`⚽ Goal
Goal for Fulham! Scored by Issa Diop.
20`🎯 Shot On Target
Issa Diop has a shot on target for Fulham.
19`🥅 Shot
Issa Diop takes a shot for Fulham.
19`🥅 Shot
Kevin Macedo takes a shot for Fulham.
18`⚽ Goal
Goal for Fulham!
20`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Joe Willock for Newcastle.
17`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sven Botman for Newcastle.
16`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
16`🚩 Corner
Corner for Fulham.
16`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Rodrigo Muniz for Fulham.
14`🥅 Shot
Antonee Robinson takes a shot for Fulham.
14`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Antonee Robinson for Fulham.
14`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Dan Burn for Newcastle.
14`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
14`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Lewis Hall for Newcastle.
14`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Timothy Castagne for Fulham.
13`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
11`🚩 Corner
Corner for Fulham.
10`🥅 Shot
Alex Iwobi takes a shot for Fulham.
9`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Kevin Macedo for Fulham.
8`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
7`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Malick Thiaw for Newcastle.
6`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jacob Ramsey for Newcastle.
6`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Malick Thiaw for Newcastle.
5`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Newcastle.
4`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Alex Iwobi for Fulham.
4`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Newcastle.
3`🚩 Corner
Corner for Newcastle.
3`🥅 Shot
Rodrigo Muniz takes a shot for Fulham.
0`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fulham.
0`🟢 Match Started
Fulham vs Newcastle has started.
0`
