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Copa Sudamericana · Copa Sul-Americana
1 week ago ENDED
Venue Arena do Grêmio · Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
Ref P. Maza
Round Round of 32
Grêmio RS
0 · 1
ENDED
Club Bolívar
66%–34%
🟥 3 🟨 4
48
16
12
Recap Read full match recap
1 expert tip on this match
AltBetsAI (3.05x)
Tips for this match 1
AltBetsAI
AltBetsAI
FREE PICK
TIP
Draw or Club Bolívar
Analysis
Simulator projects 56.8% probability for draw or Bolívar win versus 32.8% implied by 3.05 odds, yielding a +24 percentage-point edge.

Bolívar's away defense concedes 1.0 goals per game; Grêmio's home attack averages 1.4 goals, below the 1.27 expected goals in simulation.

First-leg context: Bolívar won 3-2 away on Jul 23 and defends a 1-goal aggregate lead, forcing Grêmio to attack and exposing counter-attack vulnerability.

Grêmio's recent home form is mixed—50% win rate, 1.7 ppg, only 40% Over 2.5 rate—suggesting defensive caution fits knockout-stage mentality.

H2H meeting 3 days prior (Bolívar 3-2 Grêmio away) showed Bolívar's attacking threat was decisive; defensive stability favors the away side.

Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : draw or Bolívar and +1.5 goals

RISK FACTORS
- Grêmio's home advantage is material: 1.7 ppg at home versus Bolívar's 1.3 ppg away; knockout desperation could unlock attacking intensity not captured in recent averages.
- Only 1 prior H2H meeting limits predictive power; squad rotation or tactical adjustments post-first-leg are possible.
- Medium-confidence DOUBLE_CHANCE picks hit 53.3% historically (n=107); variance in knockout football is high and edge is not guaranteed.
3.05
1.0
WIN
+2.05u

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Match timeline
⚠️ Foul
101'

Foul by Erwin Saaverda for Club Bolívar.

🎯 Shot On Target
100'

José Sagredo has a shot on target for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
100'

José Sagredo takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
98'

Foul by Rodrigues Marlon for Grêmio RS.

🟥 Red Card
98'

Red card for Rodrigues Marlon of Grêmio RS.

🟨 Yellow Card
96'

Yellow card for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
96'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
96'

Tackle by Xavier Arreaga for Club Bolívar.

🧤 Goal Kick
96'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🚩 Corner
95'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

🟨 Yellow Card
94'

Yellow card for Club Bolívar.

🟥 Red Card
Red Card
92'

Red card for L. Justiniano of Bolívar.

🟥 Red Card
Red Card
92'

Red card for E. Noriega of Gremio.

🥅 Shot
90'

José Enamorado takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
90'

Gabriel Ferreira has a shot on target for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
90'

Gabriel Ferreira takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
90'

Tackle by Martin Braithwaite for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
90'

Tackle by Matheus Nascimento for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
90'

Tackle by Carlos Melgar for Club Bolívar.

🧤 Goal Kick
89'

Goal kick for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
89'

Dairon Asprilla takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
89'

Foul by Dairon Asprilla for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
89'

Tackle by Rodrigues Marlon for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
88'

Pato Rodríguez takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

🎯 Shot On Target
87'

Pato Rodríguez has a shot on target for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
87'

Pato Rodríguez takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
87'

Tackle by Dorny Romero for Club Bolívar.

🧤 Goal Kick
86'

Goal kick for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
86'

Erwin Saaverda takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
86'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
85'

Foul by Erick Noriega for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
84'

Cristian Pavon has a shot on target for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
84'

Cristian Pavon takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
84'

Tackle by Gabriel Ferreira for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
83'

Foul by Gustavo Souza Martins for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
83'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
82'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
82'

Tackle by José Enamorado for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Corner
81'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
81'

Gabriel Ferreira takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
80'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
79'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
79'

Tackle by Cristian Pavon for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
78'

Tackle by Dairon Asprilla for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
78'

Tackle by Xavier Arreaga for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
78'

Tackle by Robson Matheus for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
78'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
77'

Matheus Nascimento takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
77'

Gabriel Ferreira takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
77'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
77'

Tackle by Pato Rodríguez for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
76'

Foul by Dorny Romero for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
76'

Tackle by Rodrigues Marlon for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
76'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
75'

Foul by Gustavo Souza Martins for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
75'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
74'

Robson Matheus takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
74'

Dorny Romero takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

🧤 Goal Kick
74'

Goal kick for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
74'

Dorny Romero takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

🚩 Corner
74'

Corner for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
73'

Tackle by Robson Matheus for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
73'

Pato Rodríguez takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
73'

Tackle by Leonel Justiniano for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
70'

Foul by Erick Noriega for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
70'

Tackle by Erick Noriega for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
70'

Tackle by Rodrigues Marlon for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
69'

Martin Braithwaite has a shot on target for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
69'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
68'

Erick Noriega has a shot on target for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
68'

Erick Noriega takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
67'

Foul by Pato Rodríguez for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
67'

Tackle by Carlos Melgar for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
67'

Tackle by Leonel Justiniano for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
67'

Tackle by Gustavo Souza Martins for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
67'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🎯 Shot On Target
66'

José Enamorado has a shot on target for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
66'

José Enamorado takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
66'

Matheus Nascimento takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
66'

Foul by Rodrigues Marlon for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
65'

Foul by Carlos Melgar for Club Bolívar.

🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow Card
65'

Yellow card for C. A. Melgar of Bolívar.

🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow Card
64'

Yellow card for C. Pavon of Gremio.

⚠️ Foul
63'

Foul by Gabriel Ferreira for Grêmio RS.

🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow Card
63'

Yellow card for Gabriel Mec of Gremio.

🧤 Goal Kick
62'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
62'

Tackle by Dorny Romero for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
62'

Tackle by Jesus Sagredo for Club Bolívar.

🧤 Goal Kick
61'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🎯 Shot On Target
61'

Pato Rodríguez has a shot on target for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
61'

Pato Rodríguez takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
60'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
59'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
59'

Tackle by Erick Noriega for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
57'

Foul by Mateus Tete for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
57'

Robson Matheus has a shot on target for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
56'

Foul by Walter Kannemann for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
56'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
55'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
54'

Tackle by Cristian Pavon for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
53'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
53'

Matheus Nascimento takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Corner
53'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
52'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
52'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
51'

Goal kick for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
51'

Carlos Melgar takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
50'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
50'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
49'

Rodrigues Marlon takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Corner
49'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
48'

Matheus Nascimento has a shot on target for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
48'

Matheus Nascimento takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
47'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
47'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
46'

Tackle by Jesus Sagredo for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
46'

Foul by Gustavo Souza Martins for Grêmio RS.

▶️ Second Half Started
0'

The second half has started.

⏸️ Half Time
0'

Half time. Score: 0-1.

🧤 Goal Kick
48'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
47'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
46'

Foul by Gustavo Souza Martins for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
45'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
43'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
43'

Tackle by José Sagredo for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
43'

Tackle by Erick Noriega for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
42'

Foul by Mateus Tete for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
42'

Gustavo Souza Martins takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Corner
42'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
40'

Mateus Tete has a shot on target for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
40'

Mateus Tete takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
40'

Juan Nardoni has a shot on target for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
40'

Juan Nardoni takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Corner
40'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Corner
40'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
40'

Tackle by Jesus Sagredo for Club Bolívar.

🧤 Goal Kick
39'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
39'

Gustavo Souza Martins takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Corner
38'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
38'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
38'

Tackle by Pato Rodríguez for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
36'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
36'

Tackle by Dorny Romero for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
36'

Tackle by Robson Matheus for Club Bolívar.

🧤 Goal Kick
35'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
35'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
34'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
33'

Foul by Juan Nardoni for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
33'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
32'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
32'

Tackle by Erick Noriega for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
32'

Goal kick for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
31'

Dorny Romero takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
31'

Tackle by Walter Kannemann for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
30'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Offside
29'

Dairon Asprilla is caught offside for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
29'

Erick Noriega takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
28'

Foul by Pato Rodríguez for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
27'

Foul by Dairon Asprilla for Club Bolívar.

🧤 Goal Kick
26'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
24'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
24'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
23'

Foul by Leonel Justiniano for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
22'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
20'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
19'

Goal kick for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
19'

Carlos Melgar takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
18'

Foul by Gustavo Souza Martins for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
16'

Shot on target for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
16'

Shot for Club Bolívar.

⚽ Goal
Normal Goal
16'

Goal for Bolívar! Scored by D. Asprilla. Assist: Robson Matheus.

Assist Robson Matheus
⚠️ Foul
14'

Foul by Martin Braithwaite for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
14'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
14'

Mateus Tete takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Corner
13'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
13'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
12'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
13'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🧤 Goal Kick
12'

Goal kick for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
12'

Mateus Tete takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🚩 Corner
11'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

🎯 Shot On Target
11'

Martin Braithwaite has a shot on target for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
11'

Martin Braithwaite takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

🥅 Shot
10'

Francis Amuzu takes a shot for Grêmio RS.

⚠️ Foul
10'

Foul by Juan Nardoni for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
9'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
9'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
8'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
8'

Tackle by Pato Rodríguez for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
6'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

🎯 Shot On Target
6'

Leonel Justiniano has a shot on target for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
6'

Leonel Justiniano takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
5'

Robson Matheus takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

🚩 Corner
4'

Corner for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
3'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🛡️ Tackle
3'

Tackle by Carlos Melgar for Club Bolívar.

🛡️ Tackle
3'

Tackle by Erick Noriega for Grêmio RS.

↩️ Throw In
2'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
2'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
2'

Throw in for Club Bolívar.

🥅 Shot
2'

Dorny Romero takes a shot for Club Bolívar.

⚠️ Foul
1'

Foul by Dorny Romero for Club Bolívar.

↩️ Throw In
1'

Throw in for Grêmio RS.

🟢 Match Started
0'

Grêmio RS vs Club Bolívar has started.

Grêmio RS Team stats Club Bolívar
Possession %
66 34
Total shots
29 19
Shots on target
10 6
Shots off target
13 7
Blocked shots
6 6
Shots inside box
21 7
Shots outside box
8 12
Corners
11 1
Fouls
16 8
Offsides
0 1
Yellow cards
3 1
Red cards
2 1
Saves
5 9
Passes
540 294
Accurate passes
473 219
Pass accuracy %
88 74
xG
1.53 1.2
Goals prevented
1 1
Tackles
16 22
Throw-ins
18 15
Penalties
0 0
Gremio
Luis Castro
4-1-4-1
Bolívar
Alejandro Restrepo
4-4-2
Home
Gremio
4-1-4-1

Coach Luis Castro

Starting XI
  • 12 Gabriel Grando G
  • 7 Cristian Pavón D
  • 6 Gustavo Martins D
  • 4 Walter Kannemann D
  • 54 Pedro Gabriel D
  • 19 Erick Noriega M
  • 21 Tetê M
  • 5 Juan Nardoni M
  • 17 Dodi M
  • 9 Francis Amuzu M
  • 22 Martin Braithwaite F
Substitutes
  • 1 Weverton
  • 3 Wagner Leonardo
  • 43 Luis Guedes
  • 23 Marlon
  • 14 Marcos Rocha
  • 2 Fabián Balbuena
  • 99 José Enamorado
  • 65 Riquelme Freitas
  • 37 Gabriel Mec
  • 20 Mathias Villasanti
  • 50 Zortéa
  • 30 Matheus Nascimento
Away
Bolívar
4-4-2

Coach Alejandro Restrepo

Starting XI
  • 1 Carlos Lampe G
  • 2 Jesús Sagredo D
  • 5 Santiago Echeverria D
  • 3 Xavier Arreaga D
  • 4 José Sagredo D
  • 14 Robson Matheus M
  • 23 Leonel Justiniano M
  • 80 Carlos Melgar M
  • 17 Patricio Rodríguez M
  • 27 Dairon Asprilla F
  • 77 Dorny Romero F
Substitutes
  • 13 Diego Méndez
  • 33 Fernando Mena
  • 35 Escleizon Freita
  • 16 Leonardo Zabala
  • 8 Luis Paz
  • 26 Erwin Saavedra
  • 6 Ervin Vaca
  • 10 Billy Arce
  • 19 John García
  • 18 Lucas Chávez
  • 7 Jhon Velásquez
  • 9 Martín Cauteruccio
Gremio
Player Min G A Rating
Gabriel Grando
– – – –
Cristian Pavón 🟨
– – – –
Gustavo Martins
– – – –
Walter Kannemann 🟨
– – – –
Pedro Gabriel
– – – –
Erick Noriega 🟥
– – – –
Tetê
– – – –
Juan Nardoni
– – – –
Dodi
– – – –
Francis Amuzu
– – – –
Martin Braithwaite
– – – –
Marlon
– – – –
Mathias Villasanti
– – – –
Matheus Nascimento
– – – –
José Enamorado
– – – –
Gabriel Mec 🟨
– – – –
Weverton
– – – –
Wagner Leonardo
– – – –
Luis Guedes
– – – –
Marcos Rocha
– – – –
Fabián Balbuena
– – – –
Riquelme Freitas
– – – –
Zortéa
– – – –
Bolívar
Player Min G A Rating
Carlos Lampe
– – – –
Jesús Sagredo
– – – –
Santiago Echeverria
– – – –
Xavier Arreaga
– – – –
José Sagredo
– – – –
Leonel Justiniano 🟥
– – – –
Carlos Melgar 🟨
– – – –
Dorny Romero
– – – –
Robson Matheus
– – 1 –
Patricio Rodríguez
– – – –
Dairon Asprilla
– 1 – –
Erwin Saavedra
– – – –
Leonardo Zabala
– – – –
Luis Paz
– – – –
Ervin Vaca
– – – –
Diego Méndez
– – – –
Fernando Mena
– – – –
Escleizon Freita
– – – –
Billy Arce
– – – –
John García
– – – –
Lucas Chávez
– – – –
Jhon Velásquez
– – – –
Martín Cauteruccio
– – – –
Standings CONMEBOL Sudamericana
# Team P GD Pts
1 Atletico Torque DWWLW 6 6 13
2 Gremio DWWDW 6 5 11
3 Deportivo Riestra DLLWL 6 -6 5
4 Palestino DLLDL 6 -5 3
Head to head
  • 2026-07-23 Bolívar 3–2 Gremio CONMEBOL Sudamericana

No injury or absence data for this fixture.

Snapshots

30 Jul 2026, 23:54 UTC · changes vs opening odds

Live on X
Public posts matching this fixture
8 posts
SharpCLV @Sharp_CLV
Quoted post

✅ CASHED! ✅ Grêmio vs Bolívar | Over 10.5 Corners 💰 Stake: 1.5u @ 2.88 odds Profit: +2.82u 📈 Another value play lands. Patience + EV paying dividends tonight. 🔥 Record the win and move on to the next edge. #SportsBetting #ValueBetting https://t.co/93kCGShm31

@Sharp_CLV

🚨 VALUE BET ALERT 🚨 ⚽ Grêmio vs Bolívar | Copa Sudamericana 📅 Today at 23:00 📊 Market: Total Corners Over 10.5 💰 Odds: 2.88 (Betfair) 🎯 Fair odds: 2.36 📈 Edge: +21.9% EV 🔥 Stake: 1.5 units

 View on X
AltBetsAI
AltBetsAI
FREE PICK
TIP
Draw or Club Bolívar
Analysis
Simulator projects 56.8% probability for draw or Bolívar win versus 32.8% implied by 3.05 odds, yielding a +24 percentage-point edge.

Bolívar's away defense concedes 1.0 goals per game; Grêmio's home attack averages 1.4 goals, below the 1.27 expected goals in simulation.

First-leg context: Bolívar won 3-2 away on Jul 23 and defends a 1-goal aggregate lead, forcing Grêmio to attack and exposing counter-attack vulnerability.

Grêmio's recent home form is mixed—50% win rate, 1.7 ppg, only 40% Over 2.5 rate—suggesting defensive caution fits knockout-stage mentality.

H2H meeting 3 days prior (Bolívar 3-2 Grêmio away) showed Bolívar's attacking threat was decisive; defensive stability favors the away side.

Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : draw or Bolívar and +1.5 goals

RISK FACTORS
- Grêmio's home advantage is material: 1.7 ppg at home versus Bolívar's 1.3 ppg away; knockout desperation could unlock attacking intensity not captured in recent averages.
- Only 1 prior H2H meeting limits predictive power; squad rotation or tactical adjustments post-first-leg are possible.
- Medium-confidence DOUBLE_CHANCE picks hit 53.3% historically (n=107); variance in knockout football is high and edge is not guaranteed.
3.05
1.0
WIN
+2.05u

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