ENDED: Paderborn vs Hoffenheim

Germany · Bundesliga

5 days ago ENDED

Venue Home Deluxe Arena · Paderborn

Ref Daniel Schlager

Round Regular Season - 4

Paderborn

3 · 1

ENDED

Hoffenheim

Possession

34%–66%

Cards

🟥 0 🟨 1

Shots

On target

Corners

Recap Read full match recap

1 expert tip on this match

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Tips for this match 1

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Paderborn or Draw

Analysis

Simulation projects Home or Draw at 89.72% (78.19% home + 11.53% draw), vs market-implied 47.62%. Edge: +42.1 percentage points.

Paderborn's home win rate: 66.7% over 9 games, far exceeding the market's implied 22% for home win alone.

Hoffenheim's away win rate: 30% over 10 games, with only 3 wins in 10 away matches, supporting low away win probability.

Market odds (Home 4.35, Draw 4.3, Away 1.7) heavily favor away result, contradicting recent form data.

Additional confluence: Winner : 1899 Hoffenheim

RISK FACTORS
- No prior H2H meetings between these teams, so historical patterns unavailable as confirmation.
- Hoffenheim's recent home win vs Stuttgart (2-1, Sept 12) shows they can perform when motivated, though this was at home.
- Paderborn's recent losses to Freiburg (0-1) and Dortmund (0-3) show they can be beaten at home by stronger opposition.

Odds

2.10

Units

3.0

Outcome

PENDING

Returns

+3.30u

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Match timeline

⚠️ Foul

93'

Foul by Bambase Conte for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

92'

Throw in for Paderborn.

🚩 Offside

91'

Albian Hajdari is caught offside for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

91'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

90'

Foul by Jonah Sticker for Paderborn.

⚠️ Foul

90'

Foul by Jonah Sticker for Paderborn.

🧤 Goal Kick

90'

Goal kick for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

89'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

89'

Tackle by Santiago Castañeda for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

88'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

88'

Tackle by Jonah Sticker for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

88'

Throw in for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

88'

Tackle by Ozan Kabak for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

87'

Tackle by Felix Gotze for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

87'

Tackle by Laurin Ulrich for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

87'

Tackle by Laurin Ulrich for Paderborn.

🧤 Goal Kick

87'

Goal kick for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

87'

Steffen Tigges takes a shot for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

86'

Tackle by Patrick Wimmer for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

86'

Foul by Koki Machida for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

85'

Bambase Conte takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🚩 Corner

85'

Corner for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

84'

Fisnik Asllani takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

84'

Tackle by Jano Horst for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

84'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🧤 Goal Kick

84'

Goal kick for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

83'

Bambase Conte takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot Off The Woodwork

83'

Bambase Conte hits the woodwork for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

83'

Patrick Wimmer takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

83'

Tackle by Fisnik Asllani for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

83'

Tackle by Fisnik Asllani for Hoffenheim.

🚩 Corner

83'

Corner for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

82'

Patrick Wimmer takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

82'

Tackle by Vladimir Coufal for Hoffenheim.

🧤 Goal Kick

81'

Goal kick for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

80'

Fisnik Asllani takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

80'

Foul by Santiago Castañeda for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

78'

Tackle by Albian Hajdari for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

77'

Tackle by Jano Horst for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

76'

Tackle by Ozan Kabak for Hoffenheim.

🧤 Goal Kick

76'

Goal kick for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

75'

Foul by Ozan Kabak for Hoffenheim.

🎯 Shot On Target

74'

Rayan Philippe has a shot on target for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

74'

Rayan Philippe takes a shot for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

72'

Bambase Conte takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

72'

Albian Hajdari takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🚩 Offside

72'

Patrick Wimmer is caught offside for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

72'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

72'

Tackle by Jonah Sticker for Paderborn.

⚠️ Foul

71'

Foul by Ozan Kabak for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

71'

Foul by Ozan Kabak for Hoffenheim.

🎯 Shot On Target

69'

Steffen Tigges has a shot on target for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

69'

Steffen Tigges takes a shot for Paderborn.

⚽ Goal

Normal Goal

69'

Goal for SC Paderborn 07! Scored by Steffen Tigges. Assist: Jonah Sticker.

Assist Jonah Sticker

🛡️ Tackle

69'

Tackle by Albian Hajdari for Hoffenheim.

🧤 Goal Kick

69'

Goal kick for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

69'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

68'

Tackle by Tjark Scheller for Paderborn.

🚩 Corner

67'

Corner for Hoffenheim.

🚩 Corner

67'

Corner for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

66'

Patrick Wimmer takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

65'

Bambase Conte takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

65'

Bambase Conte takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🚩 Corner

65'

Corner for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

64'

Wouter Burger takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🧤 Goal Kick

64'

Goal kick for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

63'

Albian Hajdari takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

62'

Foul by Adam Hlozek for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

61'

Throw in for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

61'

Jano Horst takes a shot for Paderborn.

🚩 Corner

61'

Corner for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

60'

Throw in for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

57'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

56'

Throw in for Paderborn.

⚠️ Foul

55'

Foul by Koki Machida for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

55'

Throw in for Paderborn.

⚠️ Foul

54'

Foul by Max Moerstedt for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

53'

Foul by Laurin Curda for Paderborn.

⚠️ Foul

53'

Foul by Bambase Conte for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

52'

Tackle by Wouter Burger for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

52'

Throw in for Paderborn.

🎯 Shot On Target

50'

Adam Daghim has a shot on target for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

50'

Adam Daghim takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

⚽ Goal

Normal Goal

50'

Goal for 1899 Hoffenheim! Scored by Adam Daghim.

🛡️ Tackle

50'

Tackle by Koki Machida for Hoffenheim.

🎯 Shot On Target

49'

Bambase Conte has a shot on target for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

49'

Bambase Conte takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🚩 Corner

49'

Corner for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

47'

Tackle by Koki Machida for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

46'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

▶️ Second Half Started

The second half has started.

⏸️ Half Time

Half time. Score: 2-0.

🧤 Goal Kick

46'

Goal kick for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

46'

Marvin Pieringer takes a shot for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

45'

Tackle by Mats Rots for Hoffenheim.

🟨 Yellow Card

Yellow Card

45'

Yellow card for Wouter Burger of 1899 Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

45'

Foul by Wouter Burger for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

43'

Foul by Ozan Kabak for Hoffenheim.

🎯 Shot On Target

42'

Stefano Marino has a shot on target for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

42'

Stefano Marino takes a shot for Paderborn.

⚽ Goal

Normal Goal

42'

Goal for SC Paderborn 07! Scored by Stefano Marino. Assist: Laurin Curda.

Assist Laurin Curda

🧤 Goal Kick

42'

Goal kick for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

41'

Adam Hlozek takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

41'

Tackle by Wouter Burger for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

40'

Tackle by Vladimir Coufal for Hoffenheim.

🚩 Corner

40'

Corner for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

39'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

38'

Tackle by Bambase Conte for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

38'

Tackle by Laurin Curda for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

37'

Throw in for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

35'

Tackle by Jano Horst for Paderborn.

⚠️ Foul

34'

Foul by Laurin Curda for Paderborn.

🚩 Corner

34'

Corner for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

33'

Gabriel Vidovic takes a shot for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

33'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

32'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

32'

Throw in for Paderborn.

🧤 Goal Kick

31'

Goal kick for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

31'

Bambase Conte takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

⚽ Goal

30'

Goal for Paderborn! Scored by Santiago Castañeda.

🎯 Shot On Target

29'

Santiago Castañeda has a shot on target for Paderborn.

⚽ Goal

Normal Goal

30'

Goal for SC Paderborn 07! Scored by Santiago Castaneda.

🚩 Corner

29'

Corner for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

28'

Tackle by Mats Rots for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

28'

Tackle by Santiago Castañeda for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

27'

Tackle by Leon Avdullahu for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

27'

Throw in for Paderborn.

🚩 Offside

24'

Stefano Marino is caught offside for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

24'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot Off The Woodwork

23'

Vladimir Coufal hits the woodwork for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

23'

Vladimir Coufal takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

23'

Bambase Conte takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

23'

Foul by Bambase Conte for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

23'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

23'

Tackle by Laurin Curda for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

23'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🧤 Goal Kick

21'

Goal kick for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

21'

Throw in for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

21'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

20'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

20'

Tackle by Max Moerstedt for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

19'

Foul by Marvin Pieringer for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

18'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

17'

Tackle by Bambase Conte for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

17'

Tackle by Gabriel Vidovic for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

17'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

16'

Tackle by Jano Horst for Paderborn.

🚩 Corner

16'

Corner for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

14'

Tackle by Bambase Conte for Hoffenheim.

🥅 Shot

13'

Adam Hlozek takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

🎯 Shot On Target

13'

Stefano Marino has a shot on target for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

13'

Stefano Marino takes a shot for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

12'

Raphael Obermair takes a shot for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

12'

Raphael Obermair takes a shot for Paderborn.

⚠️ Foul

12'

Foul by Laurin Ulrich for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

12'

Tackle by Koki Machida for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

11'

Tackle by Santiago Castañeda for Paderborn.

🧤 Goal Kick

11'

Goal kick for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

11'

Wouter Burger takes a shot for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

11'

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

10'

Foul by Ozan Kabak for Hoffenheim.

⚠️ Foul

Foul by Mats Rots for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🛡️ Tackle

Tackle by Laurin Ulrich for Paderborn.

🚩 Corner

Corner for Paderborn.

🥅 Shot

Raphael Obermair takes a shot for Paderborn.

🚩 Corner

Corner for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

Tackle by Stefano Marino for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

Throw in for Paderborn.

🛡️ Tackle

Tackle by Santiago Castañeda for Paderborn.

⚠️ Foul

Foul by Adam Hlozek for Hoffenheim.

🚩 Offside

Adam Daghim is caught offside for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

Throw in for Paderborn.

↩️ Throw In

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

↩️ Throw In

Throw in for Hoffenheim.

🟢 Match Started

Paderborn vs Hoffenheim has started.

SC Paderborn 07

R. Kettemann

3-5-2

15 15 Noll

22 22 Hansen

25 25 Scheller

21 21 Horst

23 23 Obermair

40 40 Vidović

5 5 Castañeda

28 28 Ulrich

17 17 Curda

30 30 Marino

18 18 Pieringer

1899 Hoffenheim

C. Ilzer

4-4-2

1 1 Baumann

39 39 Rots

28 28 Machida

5 5 Kabak

34 34 Coufal

14 14 Daghim

18 18 Burger

7 7 Avdullahu

20 20 Conté

9 9 Moerstedt

10 10 Hložek

Home

SC Paderborn 07

3-5-2

Coach R. Kettemann

Starting XI

15 N. Noll G
21 J. ter Horst D
25 T. Scheller D
22 M. Hansen D
17 L. Curda M
28 L. Ulrich M
5 S. Castañeda M
40 G. Vidović M
23 R. Obermair M
18 M. Pieringer F
30 S. Marino F

Substitutes

27 S. Tigges
38 D. Zeitler
6 T. Baack
20 F. Götze
11 S. Michel
2 Ruben Müller
9 R. Philippe
1 M. Schubert
3 Jonah Benedict Sticker

Away

1899 Hoffenheim

4-4-2

Coach C. Ilzer

Starting XI

1 O. Baumann G
34 V. Coufal D
5 O. Kabak D
28 K. Machida D
39 M. Rots D
20 B. Conté M
7 L. Avdullahu M
18 W. Burger M
14 A. Daghim M
10 A. Hložek F
9 Max Moerstedt F

Substitutes

17 Nathan De Cat
15 V. Gendrey
21 A. Hajdari
2 R. Hranáč
27 A. Kramarić
19 T. Lemperle
37 L. Philipp
8 P. Wimmer
11 F. Asllani

SC Paderborn 07

Player	Min	G	A	Rating
J. ter Horst	–	–	–	–
N. Noll	–	–	–	–
D. Zeitler	–	–	–	–
S. Tigges	–	1	–	–
Jonah Benedict Sticker	–	–	1	–
M. Schubert	–	–	–	–
R. Philippe	–	–	–	–
Ruben Müller	–	–	–	–
S. Michel	–	–	–	–
F. Götze	–	–	–	–
T. Baack	–	–	–	–
M. Pieringer	–	–	–	–
G. Vidović	–	–	–	–
L. Ulrich	–	–	–	–
R. Obermair	–	–	–	–
S. Castañeda	–	1	–	–
L. Curda	–	–	1	–
M. Hansen	–	–	–	–
T. Scheller	–	–	–	–
S. Marino	–	1	–	–

1899 Hoffenheim

Player	Min	G	A	Rating
Max Moerstedt	–	–	1	–
F. Asllani	–	–	–	–
Nathan De Cat	–	–	–	–
V. Gendrey	–	–	–	–
A. Hajdari	–	–	–	–
R. Hranáč	–	–	–	–
A. Kramarić	–	–	–	–
T. Lemperle	–	–	–	–
L. Philipp	–	–	–	–
P. Wimmer	–	–	–	–
A. Hložek	–	–	–	–
A. Daghim	–	1	–	–
W. Burger 🟨	–	–	–	–
L. Avdullahu	–	–	–	–
B. Conté	–	–	–	–
M. Rots	–	–	–	–
K. Machida	–	–	–	–
O. Kabak	–	–	–	–
V. Coufal	–	–	–	–
O. Baumann	–	–	–	–

Standings Bundesliga

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
11	FC Schalke 04 WDL	3	-1	4
12	1. FC Köln LDLW	4	-3	4
13	1899 Hoffenheim WLL	3	-1	3
14	VfB Stuttgart LLWL	4	-3	3
15	Hamburger SV WLLL	4	-11	3
16	SC Paderborn 07 LLD	3	-4	1
17	Union Berlin LLLD	4	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach LLLL	4	-10	0