Bookmaker odds for draw at 3.75 imply 26.7% probability
Calculated edge: (0.70 × 3.75) - 1 = 1.625 - 1 = 0.625 or 62.5% (overestimated by bookmaker)
High confidence due to excellent data quality and clear simulation outcome
Draw odds are undervalued relative to simulation, offering strong value
Data support: N/A
CONTEXT
keyMatchups:
- Palermo's potent attack vs Catanzaro's vulnerable defense
- Midfield battles to control possession and create scoring opportunities
tacticalNotes:
- Palermo likely to dominate possession and press high at home
- Catanzaro may adopt a counter-attacking approach, exploiting spaces left by Palermo
strategicInsights:
- Palermo should focus on maintaining offensive pressure while tightening defensive transitions
- Catanzaro's best chance is to capitalize on set-pieces or quick counters
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10
Italy - Serie B
· 1 month ago
ENDED
Palermo
2·0
Catanzaro
🟥 Red Card
Red card for Palermo.
97`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Rui Modesto for Palermo.
95`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Filippo Ranocchia for Palermo.
95`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Palermo.
95`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Palermo.
95`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Catanzaro.
95`🟥 Red Card
Red card for Niccolo Pierozzi of Palermo.
94`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Catanzaro.
93`🟥 Red Card
Red card for Palermo.
94`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Niccolo Pierozzi for Palermo.
92`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Palermo.
91`🥅 Shot
Filippo Pittarello takes a shot for Catanzaro.
91`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Antonio Palumbo for Palermo.
90`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Fabio Rispoli for Catanzaro.
90`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Palermo.
89`⚽ Goal
Goal for Palermo! Scored by Rui Modesto.
89`🎯 Shot On Target
Rui Modesto has a shot on target for Palermo.
88`🥅 Shot
Rui Modesto takes a shot for Palermo.
88`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nicolo Brighenti for Catanzaro.
87`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Palermo.
87`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
85`🥅 Shot
Aljosa Vasic takes a shot for Palermo.
84`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Palermo.
84`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
83`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
82`🚩 Offside
Filippo Pittarello is caught offside for Catanzaro.
82`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Palermo.
81`🥅 Shot
Simone Pontisso takes a shot for Catanzaro.
80`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
80`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Costantino Favasuli for Catanzaro.
79`🚩 Corner
Corner for Palermo.
79`🚩 Corner
Corner for Palermo.
79`🥅 Shot
Shot for Palermo.
78`🚩 Corner
Corner for Palermo.
79`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
77`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Palermo.
75`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Costantino Favasuli for Catanzaro.
75`🥅 Shot
Costantino Favasuli takes a shot for Catanzaro.
74`🥅 Shot
Tommaso Cassandro takes a shot for Catanzaro.
73`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
72`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nicolo Brighenti for Catanzaro.
72`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Rui Modesto for Palermo.
71`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
70`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
70`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Tomasso Augello for Palermo.
70`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
70`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
69`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
68`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Aljosa Vasic for Palermo.
68`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Gabriele Alesi for Catanzaro.
68`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Giangiacomo Magnani for Palermo.
67`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
67`🥅 Shot
Antonio Palumbo takes a shot for Palermo.
67`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
66`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
66`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
65`🚩 Offside
Filippo Pittarello is caught offside for Catanzaro.
65`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Aljosa Vasic of Palermo.
65`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Aljosa Vasic for Palermo.
64`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Costantino Favasuli for Catanzaro.
64`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Aljosa Vasic for Palermo.
63`🎯 Shot On Target
Federico Di Francesco has a shot on target for Catanzaro.
62`🥅 Shot
Federico Di Francesco takes a shot for Catanzaro.
62`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Giangiacomo Magnani for Palermo.
60`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jacopo Petriccione for Catanzaro.
60`🎯 Shot On Target
Dennis Johnsen has a shot on target for Palermo.
58`🥅 Shot
Dennis Johnsen takes a shot for Palermo.
58`🎯 Shot On Target
Dennis Johnsen has a shot on target for Palermo.
58`🥅 Shot
Dennis Johnsen takes a shot for Palermo.
58`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Joel Pohjanpalo for Palermo.
58`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
58`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Pietro Iemmello for Catanzaro.
57`🚩 Corner
Corner for Palermo.
56`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
55`🚩 Corner
Corner for Palermo.
56`🥅 Shot
Aljosa Vasic takes a shot for Palermo.
54`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Tommaso Cassandro for Catanzaro.
53`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
53`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Pietro Ceccaroni for Palermo.
53`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
53`🚩 Corner
Corner for Palermo.
52`🚩 Corner
Corner for Palermo.
52`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Antonio Palumbo for Palermo.
51`🎯 Shot On Target
Filippo Ranocchia has a shot on target for Palermo.
51`🥅 Shot
Filippo Ranocchia takes a shot for Palermo.
51`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
50`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
50`🥅 Shot
Aljosa Vasic takes a shot for Palermo.
49`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Catanzaro.
49`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Filippo Pittarello for Catanzaro.
48`🥅 Shot
Antonio Palumbo takes a shot for Palermo.
47`🥅 Shot Off The Woodwork
Antonio Palumbo hits the woodwork for Palermo.
47`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
47`▶️ Second Half Started
The second half has started.
0`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 1-0.
0`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Jacopo Segre of Palermo.
50`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Palermo.
50`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Tommaso Cassandro for Catanzaro.
49`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jacopo Segre for Palermo.
48`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jacopo Petriccione for Catanzaro.
48`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Palermo.
48`🥅 Shot
Simone Pontisso takes a shot for Catanzaro.
48`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Giangiacomo Magnani for Palermo.
47`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jeremy Le Douaron for Palermo.
46`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
46`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Tommaso Cassandro for Catanzaro.
46`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Filippo Pittarello for Catanzaro.
45`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jeremy Le Douaron for Palermo.
44`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Pietro Ceccaroni for Palermo.
44`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Mattia Liberali for Catanzaro.
44`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
43`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Costantino Favasuli for Catanzaro.
41`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
40`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Tomasso Augello for Palermo.
40`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
40`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Mattia Liberali for Catanzaro.
39`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
39`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Costantino Favasuli for Catanzaro.
39`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
39`🥅 Shot
Joel Pohjanpalo takes a shot for Palermo.
38`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Costantino Favasuli for Catanzaro.
38`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
38`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Costantino Favasuli for Catanzaro.
38`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Antonio Palumbo for Palermo.
38`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Giangiacomo Magnani for Palermo.
35`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Mattia Liberali for Catanzaro.
35`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Giangiacomo Magnani for Palermo.
34`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
34`🥅 Shot
Dennis Johnsen takes a shot for Palermo.
34`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Niccolo Pierozzi for Palermo.
33`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Simone Pontisso for Catanzaro.
32`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
32`🥅 Shot
Pietro Iemmello takes a shot for Catanzaro.
32`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Pietro Ceccaroni for Palermo.
32`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jeremy Le Douaron for Palermo.
31`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jeremy Le Douaron for Palermo.
31`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Antonio Palumbo for Palermo.
30`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jeremy Le Douaron for Palermo.
30`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
29`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Pietro Ceccaroni for Palermo.
29`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Costantino Favasuli for Catanzaro.
29`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Antonio Palumbo for Palermo.
28`🎯 Shot On Target
Filippo Ranocchia has a shot on target for Palermo.
28`🥅 Shot
Filippo Ranocchia takes a shot for Palermo.
28`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
27`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Tommaso Cassandro for Catanzaro.
26`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
26`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Antonio Palumbo for Palermo.
26`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
25`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Antonio Palumbo for Palermo.
25`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
25`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Filippo Ranocchia for Palermo.
23`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
23`🚩 Corner
Corner for Palermo.
23`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Tommaso Cassandro for Catanzaro.
22`🥅 Shot
Mattia Liberali takes a shot for Catanzaro.
21`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jacopo Segre for Palermo.
21`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
21`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Pietro Ceccaroni for Palermo.
21`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Palermo.
21`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Dennis Johnsen for Palermo.
19`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Filippo Ranocchia for Palermo.
18`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jacopo Segre for Palermo.
17`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
16`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
15`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
14`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Pietro Iemmello for Catanzaro.
12`🎯 Shot On Target
Simone Pontisso has a shot on target for Catanzaro.
10`🥅 Shot
Simone Pontisso takes a shot for Catanzaro.
10`🚩 Offside
Pietro Iemmello is caught offside for Catanzaro.
10`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
9`🎯 Shot On Target
Mattia Liberali has a shot on target for Catanzaro.
9`🥅 Shot
Mattia Liberali takes a shot for Catanzaro.
9`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
9`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Dennis Johnsen for Palermo.
8`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Palermo.
8`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Patryk Peda for Palermo.
7`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Catanzaro.
7`🥅 Shot
Filippo Ranocchia takes a shot for Palermo.
7`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
7`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Palermo.
5`🥅 Shot
Shot for Catanzaro.
5`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Catanzaro.
5`🎯 Shot On Target
Shot on target for Catanzaro.
4`🥅 Shot
Shot for Catanzaro.
4`⚽ Goal
Goal for Palermo! Scored by Joel Pohjanpalo.
3`🎯 Shot On Target
Joel Pohjanpalo has a shot on target for Palermo.
2`⚽ Goal
Goal for Palermo!
3`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Catanzaro.
1`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jacopo Segre for Palermo.
0`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Catanzaro.
0`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Jeremy Le Douaron for Palermo.
0`🟢 Match Started
Palermo vs Catanzaro has started.
0`
