Romania home record (last 3): 3W/0D/0L, 3.33 avg goals scored, 0.67 avg conceded — flawless defensive home form.
Wales away record (last 3): 2W/0D/1L, 0.67 avg goals scored, 1.0 avg conceded — anemic attacking output on the road.
Wales missed 2026 World Cup (lost playoff to Bosnia-Herzegovina on penalties), signalling reduced squad motivation for a meaningless friendly.
Market prices Romania win at 36.4% (2.75 odds) vs our discounted 72% estimate — 35.6pp edge even after heavily discounting the San Marino 7-1 result.
Top simulator scorelines favour Romania: 2-0 (15.3%), 3-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (10.6%), 4-0 (9.6%) — 8 of top 8 are Romania wins or draws.
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- Romania host Wales in a June friendly with the simulator projecting a dominant home win (xG 2.75 vs 0.46).
- Romania's home record shows 3W/0D/0L with 3.33 avg goals scored and 0.67 conceded, though this sample includes a 7-1 thrashing of San Marino which inflates the attack metrics.
- Wales arrive having missed the World Cup (lost playoff to Bosnia on penalties) and carry a dismal away scoring record of 0.67 avg goals per away game with 0% BTTS in their last 3 away fixtures.
- The simulator gives Romania an 84.4% win probability and 65% BTTS No probability, both of which show meaningful edge against the available market odds.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 3.9/10
World - International Friendlies
· 1 month ago
ENDED
Romania
2·1
Wales
⏱️ Normal Time Ended
Normal time ended. Score: 2-1.
0`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Chris Mepham for País de Gales.
96`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
95`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Romênia.
95`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Romênia.
95`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
95`🥅 Shot
Shot for País de Gales.
93`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Romênia.
93`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
93`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Connor Roberts for País de Gales.
91`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
89`🎯 Shot On Target
Lewis Koumas has a shot on target for País de Gales.
88`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
89`🎯 Shot On Target
Lewis Koumas has a shot on target for País de Gales.
88`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
89`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
88`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for País de Gales.
88`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Adrian Rus of Romênia.
87`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Adrian Rus of Romênia.
87`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
87`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Romênia.
86`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Vlad Dragomir for Romênia.
86`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
86`🎯 Shot On Target
Adrian Rus has a shot on target for Romênia.
85`🥅 Shot
Adrian Rus takes a shot for Romênia.
85`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
86`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Andrei Coubis for Romênia.
85`🥅 Shot
Denis Dragus takes a shot for Romênia.
84`🎯 Shot On Target
Shot on target for País de Gales.
83`🥅 Shot
Shot for País de Gales.
83`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
85`🥅 Shot
David Matei takes a shot for Romênia.
83`🥅 Shot Off The Woodwork
David Matei hits the woodwork for Romênia.
83`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Romênia.
83`🥅 Shot
Connor Roberts takes a shot for País de Gales.
81`🥅 Shot
Sorba Thomas takes a shot for País de Gales.
81`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Romênia.
81`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Neco Williams for País de Gales.
81`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Connor Roberts for País de Gales.
81`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
80`⚽ Goal
Goal for Romênia!
80`🎯 Shot On Target
Adrian Rus has a shot on target for Romênia.
79`🥅 Shot
Adrian Rus takes a shot for Romênia.
79`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for País de Gales.
79`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
79`🎯 Shot On Target
Denis Dragus has a shot on target for Romênia.
77`🥅 Shot
Denis Dragus takes a shot for Romênia.
77`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Florinel Coman for Romênia.
77`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
76`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
76`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
76`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
76`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
75`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
75`🎯 Shot On Target
Lewis Koumas has a shot on target for País de Gales.
74`🥅 Shot
Lewis Koumas takes a shot for País de Gales.
74`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Josh Sheehan for País de Gales.
74`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Neco Williams for País de Gales.
74`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Denis Dragus for Romênia.
72`🚩 Offside
Florinel Coman is caught offside for Romênia.
71`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Andrei Borza for Romênia.
70`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
69`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
69`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
68`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Romênia.
67`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
65`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
65`⚽ Goal
Goal for País de Gales! Scored by David Brooks.
63`🎯 Shot On Target
David Brooks has a shot on target for País de Gales.
62`⚽ Goal
Goal for País de Gales!
63`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
61`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Daniel James for País de Gales.
61`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Darius Olaru for Romênia.
60`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ethan Ampadu for País de Gales.
59`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Darius Olaru for Romênia.
59`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
59`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
59`🥅 Shot
Louis Munteanu takes a shot for Romênia.
58`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Adrian Rus for Romênia.
58`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nathan Broadhead for País de Gales.
57`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
57`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
56`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nicolae Stanciu for Romênia.
55`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
53`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Vlad Dragomir for Romênia.
52`⚽ Goal
Goal for Romênia!
52`🎯 Shot On Target
Florinel Coman has a shot on target for Romênia.
51`🥅 Shot
Florinel Coman takes a shot for Romênia.
51`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
50`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for País de Gales.
49`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
50`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
49`🚩 Offside
Daniel James is caught offside for País de Gales.
47`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ethan Ampadu for País de Gales.
47`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Neco Williams for País de Gales.
46`🎯 Shot On Target
Daniel James has a shot on target for País de Gales.
45`🥅 Shot
Daniel James takes a shot for País de Gales.
45`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
45`▶️ Second Half Started
The second half has started.
0`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 0-0.
0`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Neco Williams for País de Gales.
45`🚩 Offside
Louis Munteanu is caught offside for Romênia.
44`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Louis Munteanu for Romênia.
43`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for País de Gales.
42`🥅 Shot
Nicolae Stanciu takes a shot for Romênia.
42`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nathan Broadhead for País de Gales.
41`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nathan Broadhead for País de Gales.
41`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Matei Ilie for Romênia.
41`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Romênia.
40`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
40`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
40`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
38`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
37`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for País de Gales.
36`🥅 Shot
Tudor Baluta takes a shot for Romênia.
36`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
36`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Daniel James for País de Gales.
35`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
35`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Lisav Naif Eissat for Romênia.
34`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nathan Broadhead for País de Gales.
34`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Darius Olaru for Romênia.
33`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for País de Gales.
32`🥅 Shot
Matei Ilie takes a shot for Romênia.
31`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ethan Ampadu for País de Gales.
30`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Joe Rodon for País de Gales.
30`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Stefan Baiaram for Romênia.
30`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Neco Williams for País de Gales.
30`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Neco Williams for País de Gales.
30`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Romênia.
29`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Lisav Naif Eissat for Romênia.
28`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Josh Sheehan for País de Gales.
27`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nicolae Stanciu for Romênia.
27`🥅 Shot
Vlad Dragomir takes a shot for Romênia.
27`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
27`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
27`🎯 Shot On Target
Louis Munteanu has a shot on target for Romênia.
26`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
27`🚩 Offside
Louis Munteanu is caught offside for Romênia.
25`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
24`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Louis Munteanu for Romênia.
23`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ethan Ampadu for País de Gales.
23`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for País de Gales.
23`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
23`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
23`🎯 Shot On Target
Nicolae Stanciu has a shot on target for Romênia.
22`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for País de Gales.
23`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
23`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
23`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
23`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
22`🚩 Corner
Corner for Romênia.
22`🎯 Shot On Target
Tudor Baluta has a shot on target for Romênia.
21`🥅 Shot
Tudor Baluta takes a shot for Romênia.
21`🥅 Shot
Vlad Dragomir takes a shot for Romênia.
20`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Rhys Norrington-Davies for País de Gales.
19`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
19`🥅 Shot
Kieffer Moore takes a shot for País de Gales.
18`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
18`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Neco Williams for País de Gales.
18`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nicolae Stanciu for Romênia.
16`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
19`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nicolae Stanciu for Romênia.
16`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
16`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
16`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
15`🚩 Offside
Louis Munteanu is caught offside for Romênia.
15`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
15`🎯 Shot On Target
Brennan Johnson has a shot on target for País de Gales.
13`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
15`🥅 Shot
Brennan Johnson takes a shot for País de Gales.
13`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
13`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
13`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
11`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
11`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
10`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Neco Williams for País de Gales.
10`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
9`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ethan Ampadu for País de Gales.
9`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for País de Gales.
8`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
7`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Neco Williams for País de Gales.
7`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Brennan Johnson for País de Gales.
7`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Andrei Burca for Romênia.
6`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Romênia.
5`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Lisav Naif Eissat for Romênia.
5`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
4`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Romênia.
4`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Romênia.
4`🚩 Corner
Corner for País de Gales.
3`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Andrei Burca for Romênia.
2`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Romênia.
1`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Romênia.
0`🟢 Match Started
Romania vs Wales has started.
0`
