💎 PRESSURE SURGE Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce 43' — 0-1 Fav: Fenerbahce (1.61 pre-match) Last 15min xG: 0.43 | SoT: 3 📈 Pressure intensifying
View on X
Turkey · Super Lig
Samsunspor
0
·
2
ENDED
Fenerbahce SK
58%–42%
🟥 0 🟨 1
18
7
7
Tips for this match
1
AltBetsAI
-2.88u
Samsunspor or Draw
Analysis
Simulator projects 1X at 80.61% versus market-implied 45.45% (2.2 odds), delivering a 35.16 percentage-point edge.
Samsunspor's home form anchors the thesis: 40% draw rate across 10 home games provides draw probability ballast.
Combined home win (56.28%) plus draw (24.33%) totals 80.61%, crushing the market's 45.45% implied probability.
Fenerbahce's away profile—1.4 goals scored, 1.6 ppg—lacks the punch to force a win despite squad quality.
Fenerbahce missing Asensio, Aktürkoglu, Amrabat, Söyüncü, Oosterwolde, Günok materially weakens their away threat.
Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : draw or Fenerbahçe and +2.5 goals
RISK FACTORS
- H2H record shows Fenerbahce 2 wins in 3 meetings; if injuries clear, away victory is viable at 19.39% per simulation.
- Draw outcome (24.33%) trails home win probability, so 1X is broader but carries lower edge than a pure home-win pick.
- Samsunspor's recent form includes a 3-3 draw versus Goztepe (2026-08-17), exposing defensive fragility.
Read more
Samsunspor's home form anchors the thesis: 40% draw rate across 10 home games provides draw probability ballast.
Combined home win (56.28%) plus draw (24.33%) totals 80.61%, crushing the market's 45.45% implied probability.
Fenerbahce's away profile—1.4 goals scored, 1.6 ppg—lacks the punch to force a win despite squad quality.
Fenerbahce missing Asensio, Aktürkoglu, Amrabat, Söyüncü, Oosterwolde, Günok materially weakens their away threat.
Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : draw or Fenerbahçe and +2.5 goals
RISK FACTORS
- H2H record shows Fenerbahce 2 wins in 3 meetings; if injuries clear, away victory is viable at 19.39% per simulation.
- Draw outcome (24.33%) trails home win probability, so 1X is broader but carries lower edge than a pure home-win pick.
- Samsunspor's recent form includes a 3-3 draw versus Goztepe (2026-08-17), exposing defensive fragility.
2.20
3.0
LOST
-3.00
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⚠️ Foul
Foul by Samed Onur for Samsunspor.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Samsunspor.
🥅 Shot
Ismail Yuksek takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Dorgeles Nene for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Romelu Lukaku takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Samsunspor.
🥅 Shot
Levent Mercan takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nathan Ake for Fenerbahce SK.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Elliot Watt for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ismail Yuksek for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nathan Ake for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Joe Mendes for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Oguz Aydin for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
🥅 Shot
Shot for Samsunspor.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Milan Skriniar for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ngolo Kante for Fenerbahce SK.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fenerbahce SK.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Celil Yüksel for Samsunspor.
🥅 Shot
Saikuba Jarju takes a shot for Samsunspor.
🥅 Shot
Saikuba Jarju takes a shot for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ismail Yuksek for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Gabriele Guarino for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Romelu Lukaku for Fenerbahce SK.
🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Yellow card for R. Lukaku of Fenerbahçe.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ngolo Kante for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ismail Yuksek for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Celil Yüksel for Samsunspor.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Irfan Can Kahveci for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Oguz Aydin for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ismail Yuksek for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Irfan Can Kahveci for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Saikuba Jarju for Samsunspor.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Vedat Muriqi for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Yalçın Kayan for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Vedat Muriqi for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Joe Mendes for Samsunspor.
🚩 Offside
Saikuba Jarju is caught offside for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Milan Skriniar for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Milan Skriniar takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🎯 Shot On Target
Vedat Muriqi has a shot on target for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Vedat Muriqi takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ngolo Kante for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Irfan Can Kahveci for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Yalçın Kayan for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nathan Ake for Fenerbahce SK.
🎯 Shot On Target
Oguz Aydin has a shot on target for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Oguz Aydin takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
⚽ Goal
Normal Goal
Goal for Fenerbahçe! Scored by O. Aydin.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Nathan Ake for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Irfan Can Kahveci for Fenerbahce SK.
▶️ Second Half Started
The second half has started.
⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 0-1.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Elliot Watt for Samsunspor.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
🚩 Offside
Joe Mendes is caught offside for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nelson Semedo for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nelson Semedo for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Oguz Aydin for Fenerbahce SK.
🎯 Shot On Target
Vedat Muriqi has a shot on target for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Gabriele Guarino for Samsunspor.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Yalçın Kayan takes a shot for Samsunspor.
🎯 Shot On Target
Mason Greenwood has a shot on target for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Mason Greenwood takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🚩 Offside
Vedat Muriqi is caught offside for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Irfan Can Kahveci for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Yalçın Kayan for Samsunspor.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Fenerbahce SK.
🎯 Shot On Target
Mason Greenwood has a shot on target for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Mason Greenwood takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Fenerbahce SK.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Milan Skriniar for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Vedat Muriqi takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot Off The Woodwork
Vedat Muriqi hits the woodwork for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ngolo Kante for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Matteo Guendouzi for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Oguz Aydin for Fenerbahce SK.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Logi Tomasson for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Vedat Muriqi for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Yalçın Kayan for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Irfan Can Kahveci for Fenerbahce SK.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Yirigue Sekongo takes a shot for Samsunspor.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Matteo Guendouzi for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Elliot Watt for Samsunspor.
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ngolo Kante for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
🚩 Offside
Vedat Muriqi is caught offside for Fenerbahce SK.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Fenerbahce SK.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Celil Yüksel takes a shot for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Oguz Aydin for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Saikuba Jarju for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Yalçın Kayan for Samsunspor.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nelson Semedo for Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Samsunspor.
⚠️ Foul
Foul by Saikuba Jarju for Samsunspor.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Fenerbahce SK.
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Fenerbahce SK.
🎯 Shot On Target
Irfan Can Kahveci has a shot on target for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Irfan Can Kahveci takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Vedat Muriqi takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ngolo Kante for Fenerbahce SK.
🎯 Shot On Target
Vedat Muriqi has a shot on target for Fenerbahce SK.
🥅 Shot
Vedat Muriqi takes a shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Joe Mendes for Samsunspor.
⚽ Goal
Normal Goal
Goal for Fenerbahçe! Scored by V. Muriqi. Assist: O. Aydin.
Assist
O. Aydin
🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Samsunspor.
🥅 Shot
Shot for Fenerbahce SK.
🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Gabriele Guarino for Samsunspor.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Fenerbahce SK.
🟢 Match Started
Samsunspor vs Fenerbahce SK has started.
Samsunspor
Team stats
Fenerbahce SK
Possession %
Total shots
Shots on target
Shots off target
Blocked shots
Shots inside box
Shots outside box
Corners
Fouls
Offsides
Yellow cards
Red cards
Saves
Passes
Accurate passes
Pass accuracy %
xG
Goals prevented
Tackles
Throw-ins
Penalties
Samsunspor
Thorsten Fink
1
1
Kocuk
17
17
Tomasson
34
34
Guarino
24
24
Borevković
2
2
Mendes
4
4
Watt
5
5
Yüksel
11
11
Kılınç
20
20
Kayan
14
14
Kaya
30
30
Jarju
Fenerbahçe
Ismail Kartal
31
31
Ederson
3
3
Brown
15
15
Aké
37
37
Škriniar
27
27
Semedo
6
6
Guendouzi
91
91
Kanté
70
70
Aydın
17
17
Kahveci
11
11
Greenwood
19
19
Muriqi
Home
Samsunspor
Coach Thorsten Fink
Starting XI
-
1
Okan Kocuk
G
-
2
Josafat Mendes
D
-
24
Toni Borevković
D
-
34
Gabriele Guarino
D
-
17
Logi Tomasson
D
-
5
Celil Yüksel
M
-
4
Elliot Watt
M
-
14
Fatih Kaya
M
-
20
Yalçın Kayan
M
-
11
Emre Kılınç
M
-
30
Saikuba Jarju
F
Substitutes
-
25
Bilal Bayazit
-
22
Yunus Emre Çift
-
3
Igor Drapiński
-
23
Enes Albak
-
72
Haluk Mustafa Tan
-
8
Samed Onur
-
77
Afonso Sousa
-
42
Antoine Sekongo
-
21
Eyup Degirmenci
-
70
Tahsin Bülbül
Away
Fenerbahçe
Coach Ismail Kartal
Starting XI
-
31
Ederson
G
-
27
Nélson Semedo
D
-
37
Milan Škriniar
D
-
15
Nathan Aké
D
-
3
Archie Brown
D
-
91
N'Golo Kanté
M
-
6
Mattéo Guendouzi
M
-
11
Mason Greenwood
M
-
17
İrfan Can Kahveci
M
-
70
Oğuz Aydın
M
-
19
Vedat Muriqi
F
Substitutes
-
34
Mert Günok
-
13
Tarık Çetin
-
21
Kojo Peprah Oppong
-
14
Yiğit Efe Demir
-
22
Levent Mercan
-
18
Mert Müldür
-
5
İsmail Yüksek
-
28
Bartuğ Elmaz
-
45
Dorgeles Nene
-
9
Romelu Lukaku
Samsunspor
| Player | Min | G | A | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Okan Kocuk
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Josafat Mendes
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Toni Borevković
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Gabriele Guarino
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Logi Tomasson
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Celil Yüksel
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Elliot Watt
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Saikuba Jarju
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Yalçın Kayan
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Emre Kılınç
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Fatih Kaya
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Antoine Sekongo
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Yunus Emre Çift
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Afonso Sousa
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Bilal Bayazit
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Igor Drapiński
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Enes Albak
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Haluk Mustafa Tan
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Samed Onur
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Eyup Degirmenci
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Tahsin Bülbül
|
– | – | – | – |
Fenerbahçe
| Player | Min | G | A | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ederson
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Nélson Semedo
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Milan Škriniar
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Nathan Aké
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Archie Brown
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Mattéo Guendouzi
|
– | – | – | – |
|
N'Golo Kanté
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Mason Greenwood
|
– | – | – | – |
|
İrfan Can Kahveci
|
– | – | 1 | – |
|
Oğuz Aydın
|
– | 1 | 1 | – |
|
Vedat Muriqi
|
– | 1 | – | – |
|
Romelu Lukaku
🟨
|
– | – | – | – |
|
İsmail Yüksek
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Dorgeles Nene
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Mert Günok
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Tarık Çetin
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Kojo Peprah Oppong
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Yiğit Efe Demir
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Levent Mercan
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Mert Müldür
|
– | – | – | – |
|
Bartuğ Elmaz
|
– | – | – | – |
Standings
Süper Lig
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kocaelispor WWL | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Rizespor WLW | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Samsunspor WD | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Trabzonspor WD | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Alanyaspor WD | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kasımpaşa WD | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Gaziantep FK LWD | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Fenerbahçe WL | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Amed LW | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Başakşehir LW | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Head to head
- 2026-03-08 Fenerbahçe 3–2 Samsunspor Süper Lig
- 2026-01-06 Fenerbahçe 2–0 Samsunspor Super Cup
- 2025-10-05 Samsunspor 0–0 Fenerbahçe Süper Lig
- 2025-03-16 Fenerbahçe 0–0 Samsunspor Süper Lig
- 2024-10-20 Samsunspor 2–2 Fenerbahçe Süper Lig
- 2024-01-21 Fenerbahçe 1–1 Samsunspor Süper Lig
- 2023-08-21 Samsunspor 0–2 Fenerbahçe Süper Lig
- 2012-03-21 Fenerbahçe 3–0 Samsunspor Türkiye Kupası
- 2012-02-02 Samsunspor 3–1 Fenerbahçe Süper Lig
- 2011-10-23 Fenerbahçe 0–0 Samsunspor Süper Lig
Team news
Samsunspor
- J. Assoumou — Inactive
- Y. E. Cift — Inactive
- T. Coulibaly — Inactive
- I. Drapinski — Inactive
- E. Tavsan — Inactive
- A. Makoumbou — Inactive
- Marius — Inactive
- A. Sousa — Inactive
- J. Assoumou — Inactive
- Y. E. Cift — Inactive
- T. Coulibaly — Inactive
- I. Drapinski — Inactive
- E. Tavsan — Inactive
- A. Makoumbou — Inactive
- Marius — Inactive
- A. Sousa — Inactive
Fenerbahce SK
- K. Akturkoglu — Concussion
- M. Asensio — Muscle Injury
- M. Gunok — Muscle Injury
- J. Oosterwolde — Achilles Tendon Injury
- C. Soyuncu — Injury
- K. Akturkoglu — Concussion
- M. Asensio — Muscle Injury
- M. Gunok — Muscle Injury
- J. Oosterwolde — Achilles Tendon Injury
- C. Soyuncu — Injury
Snapshots
30 Aug 2026, 20:21 UTC · changes vs opening odds
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Public posts matching this fixture
10 posts
Quoted post
Marseille, Inter.. don’t use this early goals whine me o. Abeg, on more lights! 🙏🏽 https://t.co/naYfTrUqA2
Fenerbahce, that’s how we like it. Let’s keep it going. 👏🏽 💪🏽
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VEDAT #MURIQI HAS SCORED IN HIS LAST 3 MATCHES FOR #FENERBAHÇE! 🤩🇽🇰 ⚽️ Konyaspor ⚽️ Lyon ⚽️ Samsunspor https://t.co/ZtUC5mmquB
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⚡ LIVE SIGNAL · AH -1.5 🇹🇷 Turkish Super Lig Samsunspor 0–1 Fenerbahce 16' ✓ FENERBAHCE AH -1.5 CONV 86 ODDS 1.65 ODDS 1.65 STAKE 2.50% - 5.00% OF BANK CB Strategy v1.04c 18+ · Conviction, not a guaranteed outcome. https://t.co/F014GJd0bd
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🇽🇰🇹🇷 Vedat Muriqi gives Fenerbahce the lead against Samsunspor 🌟 Third goal in a row for the 🇽🇰 striker 🔥 https://t.co/AR9ibawNrS
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🚨 ALERT: Jackpoor Single Bet Placed! ⚽ Samsunspor - Fenerbahce Istanbul 💰 Stake: $50,000.00 🔗 Track & more: https://t.co/kHtU8lmPIW https://t.co/xi7fyCyqSk
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#TurkishSuperLig: @Samsunspor vs. @Fenerbahce_EN - @BurakBilginblog (WORLD FEED / #beINSportsCONNECT)
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Will this age well? $50,000 on Samsunspor - Fenerbahce Istanbul. #Soccer Get this slip https://t.co/HSaeamJNL4 https://t.co/5xZT1GxDt8
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The foul just committed against Vedat was a very clear penalty for us that got stolen... #SAMvFB Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe #Fenerbahçe https://t.co/qRARfMnzL2
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This case with Muriqi (Samsunspor - Fener) would have been 100% a penalty for a certain club called Inter
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AltBetsAI
-2.88u
Samsunspor or Draw
Analysis
Simulator projects 1X at 80.61% versus market-implied 45.45% (2.2 odds), delivering a 35.16 percentage-point edge.
Samsunspor's home form anchors the thesis: 40% draw rate across 10 home games provides draw probability ballast.
Combined home win (56.28%) plus draw (24.33%) totals 80.61%, crushing the market's 45.45% implied probability.
Fenerbahce's away profile—1.4 goals scored, 1.6 ppg—lacks the punch to force a win despite squad quality.
Fenerbahce missing Asensio, Aktürkoglu, Amrabat, Söyüncü, Oosterwolde, Günok materially weakens their away threat.
Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : draw or Fenerbahçe and +2.5 goals
RISK FACTORS
- H2H record shows Fenerbahce 2 wins in 3 meetings; if injuries clear, away victory is viable at 19.39% per simulation.
- Draw outcome (24.33%) trails home win probability, so 1X is broader but carries lower edge than a pure home-win pick.
- Samsunspor's recent form includes a 3-3 draw versus Goztepe (2026-08-17), exposing defensive fragility.
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Samsunspor's home form anchors the thesis: 40% draw rate across 10 home games provides draw probability ballast.
Combined home win (56.28%) plus draw (24.33%) totals 80.61%, crushing the market's 45.45% implied probability.
Fenerbahce's away profile—1.4 goals scored, 1.6 ppg—lacks the punch to force a win despite squad quality.
Fenerbahce missing Asensio, Aktürkoglu, Amrabat, Söyüncü, Oosterwolde, Günok materially weakens their away threat.
Additional confluence: Combo Double chance : draw or Fenerbahçe and +2.5 goals
RISK FACTORS
- H2H record shows Fenerbahce 2 wins in 3 meetings; if injuries clear, away victory is viable at 19.39% per simulation.
- Draw outcome (24.33%) trails home win probability, so 1X is broader but carries lower edge than a pure home-win pick.
- Samsunspor's recent form includes a 3-3 draw versus Goztepe (2026-08-17), exposing defensive fragility.
2.20
3.0
LOST
-3.00
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