Senegal's last 4 away games: 75% wins, 2.25 goals scored, 0.5 conceded, 75% clean sheets — elite road defense.
Senegal's last 10 overall: 70% wins, 2.3 ppg, one loss (Brazil away), 0.5 avg goals conceded — defensive fortress.
USA's last 2 home games: 0–2 vs Portugal, 2–5 vs Belgium — conceded 7 goals to comparable-level opposition.
USA's last 6 home: zero clean sheets, 1.83 avg goals conceded — cannot contain Senegal's attack.
Senegal are AFCON champions and World Cup dark horse; USA treating this as tune-up with likely squad rotation under Pochettino.
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- The Dixon-Coles simulator gives Senegal an xG of 2.35 vs USA's 1.15, translating to a 63.3% win probability for Senegal — far above the market-implied 36.4% at odds of 2.75.
- Senegal arrive as AFCON champions and a World Cup dark horse, with a 70% win rate across last 10 games and a miserly 0.5 avg goals conceded.
- USA's home form is leaky (0% clean sheets in 6 home games, 1.83 avg conceded), and they were hammered 5-2 by Belgium and 2-0 by Portugal in their last two home friendlies.
- The Senegal win and Over 2.5 markets both offer substantial positive edge versus the simulator's calibrated probabilities.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 6.5/10
World - International Friendlies
· 1 month ago
ENDED
USA
3·2
Senegal
⏱️ Normal Time Ended
Normal time ended. Score: 3-2.
0`⏱️ Normal Time Ended
Normal time ended. Score: 3-2.
0`⏱️ Normal Time Ended
Normal time ended. Score: 3-2.
0`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Senegal.
92`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
92`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
91`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by EUA.
91`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Cherif Ndiaye for Senegal.
90`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
90`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Senegal.
90`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
90`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Senegal.
89`📡 Live Update
88 • Senegal
88`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Malik Tillman for EUA.
87`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
87`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for EUA.
87`🚩 Corner
Corner for Senegal.
86`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
85`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
84`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
83`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Timothy Weah for EUA.
83`🥅 Shot
Timothy Weah takes a shot for EUA.
82`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Senegal.
82`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Senegal.
82`🚩 Corner
Corner for EUA.
82`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
81`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Weston McKennie for EUA.
80`🥅 Shot
Shot for Senegal.
79`🥅 Shot
Shot for Senegal.
79`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
77`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by EUA.
77`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
77`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Weston McKennie for EUA.
77`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Cherif Ndiaye for Senegal.
76`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Weston McKennie for EUA.
76`🥅 Shot
Pape Gueye takes a shot for Senegal.
73`🚩 Corner
Corner for Senegal.
73`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
72`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Senegal.
71`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Senegal.
70`🚩 Corner
Corner for EUA.
67`🚩 Corner
Corner for EUA.
67`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for EUA.
67`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
65`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Malik Tillman for EUA.
65`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Weston McKennie for EUA.
64`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Weston McKennie for EUA.
64`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
64`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Senegal.
64`🎯 Shot On Target
Folarin Balogun has a shot on target for EUA.
62`🥅 Shot
Folarin Balogun takes a shot for EUA.
62`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Miles Robinson for EUA.
61`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Folarin Balogun for EUA.
60`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Timothy Weah for EUA.
59`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
59`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
58`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for EUA.
58`🥅 Shot
Pape Gueye takes a shot for Senegal.
57`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Senegal.
57`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Iliman-Cheikh Ndiaye for Senegal.
56`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
56`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
55`⚽ Goal
Goal for Senegal!
55`⚽ Goal
Goal for Senegal!
55`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Senegal.
54`🎯 Shot On Target
Sadio Mane has a shot on target for Senegal.
51`🥅 Shot
Sadio Mane takes a shot for Senegal.
51`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Weston McKennie for EUA.
50`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Timothy Weah for EUA.
49`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Senegal.
49`⚽ Goal
Goal for EUA!
49`🚩 Corner
Corner for Senegal.
49`⚽ Goal
Goal for EUA!
49`🚩 Corner
Corner for Senegal.
49`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Iliman-Cheikh Ndiaye for Senegal.
48`🚩 Corner
Corner for Senegal.
48`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nicolas Jackson for Senegal.
47`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 2-1.
0`🥅 Shot
Ricardo Pepi takes a shot for EUA.
47`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
46`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Christian Pulisic for EUA.
45`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
45`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
44`⚽ Goal
Goal for Senegal! Scored by Sadio Mane.
44`🎯 Shot On Target
Sadio Mane has a shot on target for Senegal.
43`⚽ Goal
Goal for Senegal!
44`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Mamadou Sarr for Senegal.
42`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
42`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
42`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for EUA.
41`🚩 Corner
Corner for Senegal.
41`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
39`🚩 Corner
Corner for Senegal.
41`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
39`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for EUA.
39`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Senegal.
38`🥅 Shot
Christian Pulisic takes a shot for EUA.
38`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
37`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for EUA.
37`🚩 Corner
Corner for Senegal.
37`🚩 Corner
Corner for Senegal.
36`🎯 Shot On Target
Iliman-Cheikh Ndiaye has a shot on target for Senegal.
35`🥅 Shot
Iliman-Cheikh Ndiaye takes a shot for Senegal.
35`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nicolas Jackson for Senegal.
35`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Ismail Jakobs for Senegal.
35`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Giovanni Reyna for EUA.
34`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Senegal.
33`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
33`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ismail Jakobs for Senegal.
32`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
32`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
31`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Mark McKenzie for EUA.
31`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Alex Freeman for EUA.
31`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Senegal.
31`🚩 Corner
Corner for EUA.
31`🚩 Corner
Corner for EUA.
31`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Antonee Robinson for EUA.
29`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for EUA.
29`🥅 Shot
Shot for Senegal.
29`🥅 Shot
Ricardo Pepi takes a shot for EUA.
28`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
28`🥅 Shot
Alex Freeman takes a shot for EUA.
27`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
27`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
27`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
26`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Antonee Robinson for EUA.
26`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
22`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Senegal.
22`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Habib Diarra for Senegal.
21`⚽ Goal
Goal for EUA! Scored by Christian Pulisic.
20`🎯 Shot On Target
Christian Pulisic has a shot on target for EUA.
19`🥅 Shot
Christian Pulisic takes a shot for EUA.
19`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Christian Pulisic for EUA.
18`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Senegal.
18`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for EUA.
17`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Mark McKenzie for EUA.
16`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
15`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for EUA.
15`🥅 Shot
Nicolas Jackson takes a shot for Senegal.
15`🥅 Shot
Sebastian Berhalter takes a shot for EUA.
14`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
14`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
14`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
14`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sadio Mane for Senegal.
12`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
12`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by EUA.
11`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
11`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
10`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Senegal.
9`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Iliman-Cheikh Ndiaye for Senegal.
9`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sebastian Berhalter for EUA.
8`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Ricardo Pepi for EUA.
7`⚽ Goal
Goal for EUA!
7`🎯 Shot On Target
Sergino Dest has a shot on target for EUA.
6`⚽ Goal
Goal for EUA!
7`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
5`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Tyler Adams for EUA.
4`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Senegal.
2`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Senegal.
1`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Iliman-Cheikh Ndiaye for Senegal.
1`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for EUA.
0`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Antonee Robinson for EUA.
0`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Lamine Camara for Senegal.
0`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Senegal.
0`🟢 Match Started
USA vs Senegal has started.
0`
