World · International Friendlies
Uzbekistan
Iran
Uzbekistan's home xG sits at 0.864 with 1.25 avg goals conceded across 8 games, maintaining 50% clean sheets.
Simulation projects 85.83% Under 2.5 probability versus 65.36% market implied, delivering 20.47 percentage point edge.
November 2025 H2H ended 0-0, reinforcing the low-scoring pattern.
Expected goals total 1.295 (Home 0.864, Away 0.431), comfortably below the 2.5 threshold.
RISK FACTORS
- Iran's away sample of 4 games carries noise risk; all 4 were draws, an atypical pattern unlikely to persist.
- Friendly matches are inherently unpredictable; Uzbekistan's home form shows 62.5% Over 2.5 rate, suggesting higher-scoring potential.
- Uzbekistan's recent results include a 4-4 draw vs Venezuela and 3-1 win vs Gabon, demonstrating offensive capability beyond simulation estimates.
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🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Irã.
⚽ Goal
Goal for Uzbequistão!
🟥 Red Card
Red card for Uzbequistão.
🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Uzbequistão.
⚽ Goal
Goal for Uzbequistão!
🏃 Penalty Kick
Penalty shot by Uzbequistão.
🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Irã.
🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Uzbequistão.
⚽ Goal
Goal for Irã!
▶️ Second Half Started
The second half has started.
⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 1-0.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Uzbequistão.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Uzbequistão.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Irã.
🚩 Corner
Corner for Uzbequistão.
🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Irã.
⚽ Goal
Goal for Uzbequistão!
🟢 Match Started
Uzbekistan vs Iran has started.
Lineups not available yet
Confirmed lineups usually appear about an hour before kickoff.
Player ratings not available yet
Ratings and match stats fill in once the game is underway.
No match insights available
Pre-match analysis and context will show here when available for this fixture.
24 Sep 2026, 15:52 UTC · changes vs opening odds
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Mentions of Uzbekistan and Iran will appear here in real time.
Uzbekistan's home xG sits at 0.864 with 1.25 avg goals conceded across 8 games, maintaining 50% clean sheets.
Simulation projects 85.83% Under 2.5 probability versus 65.36% market implied, delivering 20.47 percentage point edge.
November 2025 H2H ended 0-0, reinforcing the low-scoring pattern.
Expected goals total 1.295 (Home 0.864, Away 0.431), comfortably below the 2.5 threshold.
RISK FACTORS
- Iran's away sample of 4 games carries noise risk; all 4 were draws, an atypical pattern unlikely to persist.
- Friendly matches are inherently unpredictable; Uzbekistan's home form shows 62.5% Over 2.5 rate, suggesting higher-scoring potential.
- Uzbekistan's recent results include a 4-4 draw vs Venezuela and 3-1 win vs Gabon, demonstrating offensive capability beyond simulation estimates.
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