Brazil · Brasileirão - Série A
Vitória BA
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Vasco da Gama RJ
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Vitória BA
Analysis
Vitória's home form is 9W-1D-0L in last 10 games with 2.8 ppg and 90% win rate — elite home record in the division.
Vitória averages 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded at home — dominant on both ends of the pitch.
Vasco's away form is 2W-5D-3L in last 10 games with only 1.1 ppg, 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded away.
Simulation projects home xG 3.13 vs away xG 0.64, yielding 85.04% home win probability against 42.6% market implied at 2.35 odds.
Vasco sit 17th in Série A (relegation zone) with confirmed injury to Jair, weakening their away attacking threat.
Edge of ~42.5 pp is exceptional; top simulated scorelines are 3-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.4%), 4-0 (9.3%) — all Vitória wins.
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- Vitória BA are an exceptional home side in 2026, posting a 9W-1D-0L record across their last 10 home games with 2.6 avg goals scored and only 0.6 conceded.
- Vasco da Gama are in dire away form (2W-5D-3L, 1.3 avg goals scored away), sit 17th in the Série A table in the relegation zone, and have key player Jair sidelined per match context.
- Our simulation — anchored on these venue-split form figures — projects Vitória xG of 3.13 vs Vasco xG of 0.64, yielding an 85% home win probability and 72.4% Over 2.5 probability, both substantially above what the bookmaker odds imply.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10
Vitória averages 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded at home — dominant on both ends of the pitch.
Vasco's away form is 2W-5D-3L in last 10 games with only 1.1 ppg, 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded away.
Simulation projects home xG 3.13 vs away xG 0.64, yielding 85.04% home win probability against 42.6% market implied at 2.35 odds.
Vasco sit 17th in Série A (relegation zone) with confirmed injury to Jair, weakening their away attacking threat.
Edge of ~42.5 pp is exceptional; top simulated scorelines are 3-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.4%), 4-0 (9.3%) — all Vitória wins.
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- Vitória BA are an exceptional home side in 2026, posting a 9W-1D-0L record across their last 10 home games with 2.6 avg goals scored and only 0.6 conceded.
- Vasco da Gama are in dire away form (2W-5D-3L, 1.3 avg goals scored away), sit 17th in the Série A table in the relegation zone, and have key player Jair sidelined per match context.
- Our simulation — anchored on these venue-split form figures — projects Vitória xG of 3.13 vs Vasco xG of 0.64, yielding an 85% home win probability and 72.4% Over 2.5 probability, both substantially above what the bookmaker odds imply.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10
2.35
3.0
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Pre-match analysis
Confidence 85%
good data
Home
Vitória BA
Form: excellent
Attack
9/10
Defence
8/10
Strengths
- Solid defense — 50% clean sheets across last 10 games
- Consistent winners — 90% win rate over the sample
- Potent attack — averaging 2.60 goals scored per game
Weaknesses
- No glaring weaknesses in last 10 games
Key patterns
- Hot streak — 5 wins in last 5 games
- Games rarely end goalless — Over 1.5 in 80%
Away
Vasco da Gama RJ
Form: average
Attack
5/10
Defence
5/10
Strengths
- Goals at both ends — BTTS in 70% of recent games
Weaknesses
- Struggling to win — 20% win rate
Key patterns
- Games rarely end goalless — Over 1.5 in 80%
Match context
Expected intensity: high
Tactical notes
- Vitória BA are an exceptional home side in 2026, posting a 9W-1D-0L record across their last 10 home games with 2.6 avg goals scored and only 0.6 conceded.
- Vasco da Gama are in dire away form (2W-5D-3L, 1.3 avg goals scored away), sit 17th in the Série A table in the relegation zone, and have key player Jair sidelined per match context.
- Our simulation — anchored on these venue-split form figures — projects Vitória xG of 3.13 vs Vasco xG of 0.64, yielding an 85% home win probability and 72.4% Over 2.5 probability, both substantially above what the bookmaker odds imply.
