Wolfsburg's home form is dire: 1W-2D-7L in last 10 home Bundesliga games, averaging just 0.5 points per game and 1.1 goals scored per home game.
Paderborn's away form is strong: 4W-3D-3L in last 10 away games, averaging 1.5 points per game and 1.5 goals scored away, including a 2-0 win at Darmstadt most recently.
Wolfsburg missing Seelt (knee), Arnold (groin), and de Souza Costa (suspended) — three key players absent for a high-stakes playoff.
Simulator expected goals: Wolfsburg 1.30 xG versus Paderborn 1.52 xG — away team projected to outscore the home side.
Top simulator scorelines are 1-1 (13.0%), 1-2 Paderborn win (8.95%), and 0-1 Paderborn win (7.89%) — Paderborn winning scenarios dominate the distribution.
CONTEXT
tacticalNotes:
- This is the Bundesliga relegation playoff first leg at Volkswagen Arena.
- The market is pricing Wolfsburg as heavy favorites (1.74) but their home form is catastrophic — just 1 win in 10 home Bundesliga games, 0.5 ppg, averaging only 1.1 goals scored per home game.
- Paderborn, by contrast, have been solid away from home in 2.
- Bundesliga (4W-3D-3L, 1.5 ppg, 1.5 avg goals scored away).
- The Dixon-Coles simulator gives Paderborn a 41.3% win probability vs the market's implied 22.0%, representing a massive 19.3 pp edge on the away win.
- Wolfsburg also have key absences (Seelt, Arnold, de Souza Costa suspended) per match context, further undermining their chances.
CONFIDENCE RATING: 8.5/10
Germany - Bundesliga
· 1 month ago
ENDED
Wolfsburg
0·0
Paderborn
↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
96`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
96`🥅 Shot
Dzenan Pejcinovic takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
95`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
95`🟥 Red Card
Red card for Jonah Sticker of Paderborn.
94`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
93`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Jonah Sticker of Paderborn.
93`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Denis Vavro for Wolfsburg.
92`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
91`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
91`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
91`🎯 Shot On Target
Christian Eriksen has a shot on target for Wolfsburg.
89`🥅 Shot
Christian Eriksen takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
89`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
89`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Christian Eriksen for Wolfsburg.
88`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Lovro Majer of Wolfsburg.
88`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Lovro Majer for Wolfsburg.
86`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
86`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
86`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
86`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
85`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
85`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
85`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
83`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Denis Vavro for Wolfsburg.
82`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Denis Vavro for Wolfsburg.
82`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
82`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
82`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
82`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Santiago Castañeda of Paderborn.
82`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
81`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Mohamed Amoura for Wolfsburg.
81`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
81`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Christian Eriksen for Wolfsburg.
80`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
80`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
79`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
79`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
76`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
75`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Sael Kumbedi for Wolfsburg.
74`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
74`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
73`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
73`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
71`🥅 Shot
Steffen Tigges takes a shot for Paderborn.
71`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Wolfsburg.
70`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Wolfsburg.
70`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Mohamed Amoura for Wolfsburg.
69`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
69`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
69`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Yannick Gerhardt for Wolfsburg.
68`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
68`🥅 Shot
Christian Eriksen takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
68`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
67`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
67`🥅 Shot
Dzenan Pejcinovic takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
66`🎯 Shot On Target
Christian Eriksen has a shot on target for Wolfsburg.
66`🥅 Shot
Christian Eriksen takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
66`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Nick Batzner for Paderborn.
65`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
65`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
64`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Christian Eriksen for Wolfsburg.
63`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Joakim Mæhle for Wolfsburg.
63`🥅 Shot
Yannick Gerhardt takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
63`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
62`🎯 Shot On Target
Adam Daghim has a shot on target for Wolfsburg.
62`🥅 Shot
Adam Daghim takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
62`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
61`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
61`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
60`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
58`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
57`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Mattias Svanberg for Wolfsburg.
56`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
56`🥅 Shot
Jeanuel Belocian takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
56`🚩 Corner
Corner for Wolfsburg.
56`🥅 Shot
Christian Eriksen takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
55`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
54`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
54`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
53`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
53`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Konstantinos Koulierakis for Wolfsburg.
52`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
52`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sael Kumbedi for Wolfsburg.
51`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
51`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Denis Vavro for Wolfsburg.
51`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
50`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
50`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
50`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Dzenan Pejcinovic for Wolfsburg.
49`🚩 Corner
Corner for Wolfsburg.
49`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
48`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Mattias Svanberg for Wolfsburg.
48`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Konstantinos Koulierakis for Wolfsburg.
47`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
47`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Konstantinos Koulierakis for Wolfsburg.
45`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
45`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Joakim Mæhle for Wolfsburg.
45`▶️ Second Half Started
The second half has started.
0`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 0-0.
0`⏸️ Half Time
Half time. Score: 0-0.
0`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Konstantinos Koulierakis for Wolfsburg.
44`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Wolfsburg.
43`🚩 Corner
Corner for Wolfsburg.
43`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
41`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
41`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
40`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
40`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
40`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
39`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
38`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Yannick Gerhardt for Wolfsburg.
35`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
35`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
34`🥅 Shot
Adam Daghim takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
33`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
33`🎯 Shot On Target
Adam Daghim has a shot on target for Wolfsburg.
31`🥅 Shot
Adam Daghim takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
31`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Dzenan Pejcinovic for Wolfsburg.
31`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
30`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
30`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
30`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
30`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
30`🎯 Shot On Target
Joakim Mæhle has a shot on target for Wolfsburg.
29`🥅 Shot
Joakim Mæhle takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
29`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
27`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Jeanuel Belocian for Wolfsburg.
27`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
27`🥅 Shot
Konstantinos Koulierakis takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
26`🚩 Corner
Corner for Wolfsburg.
26`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
23`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
22`🥅 Shot
Denis Vavro takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
21`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Wolfsburg.
19`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
17`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
17`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Dzenan Pejcinovic for Wolfsburg.
16`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
15`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
15`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
14`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Wolfsburg.
14`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
13`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Sael Kumbedi for Wolfsburg.
13`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
12`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
12`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Paderborn.
11`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
10`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
10`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Ruben Muller of Paderborn.
10`🟨 Yellow Card
Yellow card for Ruben Muller of Paderborn.
10`🚩 Corner
Corner for Paderborn.
9`🚩 Corner
Corner for Paderborn.
9`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
8`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
7`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Paderborn.
7`🧤 Goal Kick
Goal kick for Wolfsburg.
7`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Paderborn.
6`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Adam Daghim for Wolfsburg.
3`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
3`↩️ Throw In
Throw in for Wolfsburg.
3`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Yannick Gerhardt for Wolfsburg.
3`⚠️ Foul
Foul by Wolfsburg.
1`🛡️ Tackle
Tackle by Paderborn.
1`🥅 Shot
Dzenan Pejcinovic takes a shot for Wolfsburg.
1`🟢 Match Started
Wolfsburg vs Paderborn has started.
0`
